It's the question to ask today, when Apple is expected to announce the new iPhone, and as AT&T subscribers continue to see their upgrade eligibility dates moved up. From one perspective, changes in upgrade eligibility would seem like good customer service -- AT&T allowing iPhone owners to get the new model subsidized sooner. But, unless in a few hours Apple announces that iPhone will be available from other US carriers, the smartphone is exclusive to AT&T. The Federal Trade Commission and Justice Department often look critically at exclusive distribution arrangements, particularly if there is any hint of price fixing.

I've been reading about iPhone full-discounted upgrade eligibility changes for weeks, where a customer sees the date moved up many months to June. This morning, over at Apple Thoughts, Jeff Campbell asks: "Are you eligible? Find out today." He writes: "When I first checked mine months ago, I had my eligibility moved up to July of this year...I checked again on the AT&T website and found that not only had my phone eligibility been moved up but the other 4 iPhones on the account had also been moved up. Previously the other iPhones had varying dates of eligibility from August of this year to September of next year."

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Apple's HTML5 Showcase is supposed to demonstrate how wonderful the Web can be without plugins while adopting Web standards. But when going to the site in Google Chrome (I haven't tested other browsers), the user is greeted with: "You need to download Safari to view this demo." Oh yeah?

More: "This demo was designed with the latest Web standards supported by Safari. If you'd like to experience this demo, simply download Safari. It's free for Mac or PC, and it only takes a few minutes." Say that again? Isn't Chrome also based on WebKit? Shouldn't the browsers be about as equally supporting HTML5?

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Yesterday, I was talking with The Loop's Jim Dalrymple about AT&T's data-capped plans. Like other long-time iPhone users, he didn't seem too concerned after looking at his data usage. I gave him three reasons why AT&T changed to capped plans, to which he asked: "So did you write about that?" No. I had written a long post about AT&T's timing tactics but nothing really that succinctly explained why. So here I'll give five reasons why AT&T changed the data plans.

But first a little preface. Many long-time iPhone users -- at least those with high Net visibility -- don't seem so concerned about the new AT&T data plans. Yeah? Well, that's an easy position to take when you're not affected. You long-timers get to keep your unlimited data plans. Starting June 7th, everyone else is capped at 200MB or 2GB, depending on how much they're willing to pay. Many people on the new plans will carry a psychological burden: How much data did I use this month? I agree with Spencer Ante, who wrote yesterday at Wall Street Journal: "AT&T's pricing shift will test behavior." Keeping that in mind, this post will be two lists of the fives. The other: Suggesting ways AT&T should make the plans better for customers.

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Earlier today, Microsoft CEO Steve Ballmer spoke candidly with guru tech columnist Walt Mossberg at the D8 Conference. I found Ballmer's candor to be refreshing and it reaffirms my contention that he is the right man to lead Microsoft's mobile business.

"We were ahead of this game, in terms of software for phones," Ballmer told Mossberg. "We are not ahead of this game. We haven't fallen off the face of the planet, but we were ahead of this game and now we find ourselves at No. 5 in the market."

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In late April, I posted a long analysis about how Apple revenue and profits had closed in on Microsoft -- to within $1 billion. Judging from pageviews, comments and e-mail responses, few people seemed to get it. I saw the trend as being much more important than Apple market capitalization nearing Microsoft's. A month and two days later, Apple's valuation topped Microsoft's, which made headlines everywhere. But still few people seem to get the significance of the revenue and income comparisons. Until yesterday. Finally somebody gets it, yet missed to connect the final dot: iPad revenue could push Apple above Microsoft during this quarter.

Business Insider's June 2 Chart of the Day, "Apple Races to Catch Microsoft's Profits," graphically depicts what I explained six weeks ago. Jay Yarow and Kamelia Angelova write: "Apple's operating income is still trailing Microsoft. But, boy is it growing fast. In the most recent quarter, Apple reported operating income of $3.9 billion, while Microsoft reported $5.2 billion." The Business Insider chart shows "operating income after depreciation," which is a nice touch. The approach also accentuates Apple's dramatic operating income rise from 2000 to 2010.

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For iPhone users already loathing AT&T, the carrier has given them a new reason: New data-capped plans introduced in somewhat sneaky fashion. Starting June 7th, AT&T will do away with unlimited smartphone data plans. The announcement comes one day after the carrier nearly doubled early termination fees for smartphones. Now we know the reason why AT&T instituted the new termination fees, or at least the timing.

Before June 7th, new or existing customers can still snag an unlimited plan and keep it even after AT&T introduces 200MB and 2GB data caps. But if subscribers make account changes, including new activations, they get bumped into one of the new capped plans. AT&T also will offer iPhone tethering, which a customer service rep told me today will be supported by iPhone OS 4. But to get tethering, customers must sign up for or switch to the 2GB data-capped plan. AT&T won't let subscribers keep their unlimited plans and have tethering, too. AT&T also will impose data caps on iPad. A 2GB capped plan will replace the current unlimited option.

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All Things Digital kicks off its eighth D Conference this evening, with Apple CEO Steve Jobs taking the hot seat. Jobs' participation couldn't come at a seemingly better time. The Apple cofounder has taken asserted charge, after recovering from a liver transplant last year. Apple stock is high flying. World Wide Developers Conference convenes next week, presumably with an iPhone 4G announcement. Apple shipped 2 million iPads since last month's sales launch.

But Apple also has been criticized for restrictive iPhone 4 OS developer terms and openness of its Web strategy. Then there is the rumored Justice Department investigation into iTunes business practices. So there is plenty for D8 organizers Walt Mossberg and Kara Swisher to ask Jobs about. I've got 10 questions and not necessarily the most obvious one. Jobs is highly unlikely to answer obvious questions, like about iPhone OS, Apple TV or other rumored announcements.

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Two astoundingly good analyses hit the InterWebs over the US holiday weekend: John Battelle's "Is The iPad A Disappointment? Depends When You Sold Your AOL Stock" and Kroc Camen's "Will Apple Embrace the Web? No." If you're a geek, developer or investor and read nothing else today, it should be these two posts -- and this one, of course. :)

Battelle and Camen come at the topic from different directions, but end up at the same destination: The Web will be easier to use on iPhone OS devices, but Apple will confine consumers and developers to its, ah, walled apple grove. I expressed similar sentiments in posts "Steve Jobs' 'Thoughts on Flash' is just smoke" and "Clash of the titans: Apple, Google battle for the mobile Web." But Battelle and Camen offer better, while different, explanations.

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Apple is celebrating Memorial Day with a little memorial to iPad: Announcement of 2 million units sold in about 60 days. Typically, in Apple parlance, sold means shipped. However, given short supplies, the stated number is probably closer to sold, depending on how much Apple stocked the international channel for the weekend launch.

Assuming an average selling price of just $500 -- and I expect it's more likely $600 or $650 -- iPad has generated at least an additional $1 billion in revenue for the company. For the full quarter just passed, Apple shipped 1.15 million desktop Macs, so already iPad has nearly doubled sales there. Desktop Mac sales generated $1.5 billion in revenue. Within weeks, if not already, iPad revenues this quarter will exceed desktop Mac for calendar Q1. Impressive.

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Monday Note has a nasty indictment of Microsoft CEO Steve Ballmer's ability to deal with reality. In post, "Ballmer just opened the second envelope," Jean-Louis Gassée writes about a different kind of Reality Distortion Field. The concept is normally applied to Apple CEO Steve Jobs and his ability to get just about anyone to believe anything. Gassée applies the Reality Distortion Field to Ballmer as a form of denial. He doesn't accept the reality of Microsoft or its failure to truly innovate under his decade-long leadership.

"Microsoft shareholders ought to worry about Steve Ballmer's own distortion, and about the self-inflicted effects of such a strong field," Gassée writes today. "We all remember Vista, it was a godsend for Apple. Did Ballmer acknowledge that there were problems? What about the Xbox 360 reliability nightmare? The apologies were left to underlings.

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The headline is my answer to the question "Is Steve Ballmer Really the Best Choice to Run Microsoft's Consumer Business?" asked by Kevin Tofel at GigaOM on May 25th. There are several good reasons why Ballmer is the right man at the right time, but one stands out. He turned around another important Microsoft product: Windows.

"For the last 12 months, I've been running our Windows business," Ballmer told financial analysts in July 2009. It was a startling proclamation. The division, now called Windows and Windows Live, had no president running operations. There was Steven Sinfosky in charge of day-to-day Windows development, but no executive above him. Ballmer took the role that Sinfosky inherited in July 2009 as president. After bungling Vista, Microsoft got Windows 7 right, under Ballmer's supervision.

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The keyword for the introduction of Mozilla Firefox 3.5 was speed. That helped start a whole new race in which Firefox led early, but fell soon behind Apple Safari, Google Chrome, and later even Opera. Now with even Microsoft Internet Explorer 9 looking to erase the speed gap, and then some, a newly published Mozilla developers' page characterizes Firefox 4 -- whose first public betas may be only a few weeks away -- as feature-laden.

Enhanced security features, built-in WebM video, and new support for standards-based animation -- including live, GPU-rendered 3D -- are all part of the new feature list for Mozilla's next browser.

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Voice-over-IP technology is getting a makeover, and service providers hope it will reinvent the industry. There's a shift away from VoIP toward hosted unified communications -- that is, integrated voice, instant messenger, e-mail, workflow applications, and procurement.

Eight companies formed the Cloud Communications Alliance at the Cloud Computing Expo held last month in New York City, banding together to help drive the development of cloud-based unified communications.

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Whether the "Windows era" is genuinely over for PCs is a matter of some debate; but the last week in both US and international markets is making clear that the dominance of PCs as technology platforms is now fully challenged by mobile devices. Today is premiere day for Apple's iPad in Europe and Asia, and though early sales numbers have yet to be tabulated, when China Daily touts the success of the premiere as an event, it looks pretty likely that sales will live up to expectations.

This morning, Reuters cited RBC Capital Markets analysts as estimating Apple could ship as many as 8.1 million iPads alone by the end of this year, with nearly half a million of those expected to be shipped to Japan, one of the countries where iPad premiered today.

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In a nutshell, the iPad is a big iPhone; and according to rumors today, Apple TV is set to become an iPhone for your HDTV.

The rumor is that Apple TV, which debuted as an iTunes media streamer nearly three years ago, will be getting a major overhaul that folds it into the iPhone OS ecosystem. Instead of having the device act like iTunes for your television, it is rumored to be based on iPhone 4, and include the same A4 processor used in the iPad and in the 4th generation iPhone prototype found in a bar and sold to the highest bidder in the media.

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