Practical quantum, encryption risk and government regulation -- quantum computing predictions for 2026
It’s the time of year again when industry executives like to peer into their crystal balls and try to predict what the future might hold.
We’ll kick off this year’s roundups with a look at quantum, something which has been hovering on the edge a major breakthrough for a few years now but, so far, has always seemed to be just out of reach from a commercial perspective. Is that set to change in 2026?
Jason Sabin, CTO of DigiCert, says, “The first practical quantum computer capable of solving meaningful problems will emerge, shifting quantum risk from theoretical to tangible. In response, global efforts toward quantum-safe cryptography will accelerate, pushing post-quantum TLS from pilot projects into early production as the CA/Browser Forum formalizes PQC standards and Microsoft’s root program advances its PQC TLS initiatives. Organizations beginning these pilots will quickly discover the depth of the challenge -- grappling with unexpected interoperability issues across hardware, software, and certificate ecosystems. These growing pains will define the early phase of quantum transition, marking the dawn of an internet built for the quantum age, where crypto-agility and quantum readiness become inseparable from digital trust.”
This echoed by experts at KnowBe4, “Q-Day, the day when quantum computers become sufficiently capable of cracking most of today's traditional asymmetric encryption, will likely happen in 2026. The security of these systems has never been more important. Organizations must strengthen human authentication through passkeys and device-bound credentials while applying the same governance rigor to non-human identities like service accounts, API keys and AI agent credentials.”
Karthik Swarnam, chief security and trust officer at ArmorCode, thinks this 2026 could be the year quantum threats get real. “Quantum computing will soon be harnessed by both security teams and adversaries, pushing the conversation from theory to action. Attackers are already harvesting encrypted data for future decryption, while defenders explore quantum power for stronger modeling and detection. As this new risk layer emerges, organizations will invest heavily in data protection programs, mapping encryption and preparing for migration to quantum-safe algorithms. Those that integrate quantum readiness into overall risk management in 2026 will be best positioned to adapt as breakthroughs accelerate.”
Thalia Laing, Principal Cryptographer at HP Security Lab says:
With ongoing advances in quantum computing, the prospect of a quantum computer capable of breaking asymmetric cryptography within a decade is becoming increasingly plausible. The US government’s decision to set a quantum-resistance deadline of 2027 for new National Security System devices signals this urgency.
To become quantum resilient, organizations must start by preparing their long-lived hardware, including their printers and PCs. With a typical commercial PC refresh averaging at just over four years and an even longer lifespan for office-class commercial printers -- devices procured in 2026 have the potential to be in use within the timeframe of a cryptographically relevant quantum computer.
From 2026 onwards, quantum resilience will increasingly influence hardware procurement decisions. This will increase pressure on device manufacturers to future-proof their devices by embedding quantum resistant cryptography into their products, while pushing for the protection of long-life data. By embedding quantum resilience now, organizations can maintain trust in the technologies shaping the Future of Work.
“Quantum computing will accelerate problem solving across sectors but threaten encryption that secures sensitive data and communications in health care, finance, and other industries,” says Daniel Wilbricht, president of Optiv + ClearShark. “The federal government will lead quantum-resistant cryptography initiatives, deploying new algorithms and upgrading legacy systems to protect national security interests. The post-quantum cryptography clock is ticking. Inventorying endpoints, infrastructure, and applications will be the first step, followed by a major hardware and infrastructure refresh to support complex NIST-certified ciphers.”
Karl Holmqvist, founder and CEO of Lastwall, says, “In 2026, the timeline for quantum-enabled attacks will shrink dramatically, pressuring organizations to expedite their adoption of post-quantum cryptography (PQC). Breakthroughs in quantum computing, such as recent leaps in quantum processor power and the corresponding multi-billion dollar buildouts that are underway, underscore that a cryptography-breaking machine may arrive sooner than expected. We expect a sharp increase in quantum security spending in 2026 as deadlines for PQC migration become real and the understanding of intensifying ‘harvest-now, decrypt-later’ espionage campaigns proliferates.”
Jaya Baloo, co-founder, COO, CISO of AISLE, believes quantum readiness will become a key factor in regulated supply chains. “Security and procurement teams will screen vendors to determine their ability to migrate to post-quantum cryptography (PQC) standards. NIST’s standardization of Kyber, Dilithium, and Falcon has transitioned PQC from a theoretical concept to a real-world deployment model, and governments are establishing timelines that mandate the use of hybrid classical and quantum-safe algorithms in new systems starting in 2026. Cloudflare, AWS, and Google have already begun implementing quantum-safe options for TLS, DNSSEC, and firmware signing, creating momentum for the rest of the ecosystem to adopt this practice as well. Regulatory bodies such as BSI in Germany and MAS in Singapore, have issued adoption roadmaps for the finance and telecom industries, and many contracts now contain cryptographic upgrade clauses. The infrastructure built today will be operational when quantum attacks occur, making early alignment with PQC standards a primary consideration when selecting vendors.”
Do you think 2026 is the year quantum computing will become mainstream? Let us know in the comments.
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