Flu-gle? Google project maps the misery

Stop calling your mom to ask her if those sniffles and aches mean you've got the flu. You're going to mess up Google's stats.

After a year of testing that involved correlating data and tweaking algorithms with the Epidemiology and Prevention Branch of the Influenza Division at the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), Google's got a new map that shows where people are searching for info on flu-related topics. According to its tests, the map can accurately estimate current outbreak levels two weeks faster than traditional flu-monitoring systems such as the CDC's own reports.

Google Flu Trends (it's a shame the search giant didn't snatch "flugle.com" away from the domain squatters) tracks certain high-relevance search terms, maps them by IP address, and puts forth the data in map form (and, for the incurably wonky, in downloadable files). The data is aggregated from searches done by the estimated 90 million Americans who search on medical issues every year.

It may sound like shaky science -- after all, anyone in any condition can Google "flu" -- but comparisons begun in the vicious 2003-04 flu season bear out a close correlation between what Google sees and what the CDC sees. Even better, since Google can process their data very quickly, daily reports are possible. That kind of early detection could keep more people from getting sick -- or at least provide an excellent reason for you not to make that business trip to Maine this week. (Feel better, Mainers!)

The implications for scientists and those working to contain epidemics (or the long-dreaded next pandemic) are sufficiently impressive to have gained five Google employees, along with a CDC scientist, a paper likely to be published in the prestigious journal Nature. A draft of "Detecting influenza epidemics using search engine query data" (PDF available here) goes into great detail about the project's findings, privacy-protection measures, the scope of the inquiry -- 50 million potential search queries were narrowed down to 53 -- and various factors that might taint the stats, including the dreaded "media coverage of the project."

Google Flu Trends is a production of Google.org, the company's public-good arm. The company has pledged not to sell advertising on the Flu Trends site, and there's no linkage between Flu Trends and the Google Health records-keeping project.