Intel releases its Q4 earnings report; revenues soft
After announcing last week that the company expects rather unattractive fourth-quarter results, Intel scheduled its usual fourth-quarter earnings call for 5:30 pm EST Thursday. CEO Paul Otellini, CFO Stacy Smith, and finance and enterprise services VP Kevin Sellers were on the call.
The company has continued to review its numbers since the January 7 announcement, which said that Intel expects revenues of around $8.2 billion, which is down 23 percent year-over-year and 20 percent sequentially. (Make that 19 percent post-call. -- AG.) Betanews liveblogged the call, below the jump.
6:35pm A final look at the earnings report: The Clearwire deal, as the company previously announced, had a billion-dollar negative impact on Intel. that contributed the lion's share to a $1.1 billion net loss from equity investments, interests and the like. Spending was down $300 million from third quarter; that can be chalked up to lower revenue- and profit-related expenses, and to some targeted reductions in spending.
As I close out the liveblog, Intel stock is up .56 to 13.85 in after-hours trading. The stock closed Thursday at 13.29, up .21.
6:25pm No stock buybacks last quarter, notes an analyst -- why not? We protect that dividend, says Stacy S., and you should take from that an indication that we feel that in this environment, having more cash is better. And with that, the call is over.
6:21pm "I don't want to light a lantern around the 'snap-back' scenario" -- Paul O. eloquently states his case for not expecting happily-ever-after by the end of 2Q. Or maybe even the end of 2009, as far as that goes. the analysts are being surprisingly theoretical today.
6:19pm Sounds like the company's scrutinizing with interest some of the new competitive models they saw at CES -- for instance, Japanese firms that are treating the computer as a nearly-free enticement to get users to sign up for services. That certainly will affect what people are willing to pay for machines, if the model works this time. (We sort of did a version of that model during the bubble, if you remember.)
6:13pm Intel tip for those reading their earnings reports: Think in terms of supply lines. The units that have longer supply lines currently show steeper declines; the units with shorter supply lines are less traumatized by mayhem. That said, we saw an "unprecedented" hitting-of-the-brakes in December. It's a bit better now, but wait 'til we see how long the factories close for Chinese New Year's -- will they take an extra week off?
6:12pm This business of not filling the factories with unsold loadings is a temporary thing, and assumes that the general outlook will be starting to be less dismal in 2Q. If that doesn't pan out, they will slow the ramp rate of 32nm and take some of the older capacity offline. That's a fallback strategy to get utilizations to the right level, though -- not the first line of attack.
6:04pm They're gonna make me spell Nehalem? Oh brother. Analyst is asking about the timing of the integration of graphics on the Core-replacing microprocessor. Second half of this year. That should give the marketing guys time to find a real name.
6:02pm Some more numbers for full-year 2009: spending, combining R&D plus mergers and acquisitions, is forecast between $10.4 billion and $10.6 billion. R&D should make up around half of that. Capital spending will be flat or maybe down from '08, and depreciation will reach $4.8 billion, give or take $100,000,000. More interestingly, the tax rate is predicted to be lower -- 27 percent, as opposed to the 36.6 percent of 2008. I'd like to hear more about that.
5:58pm An analyst is asking how things would be for the computer industry (and specifically for Atom) if things were normal. Dream that dream, sir. The execs say they're not really able to say, and that it's a hypothetical not worth talking about in any case -- "that's like asking Mrs. Lincoln what the play was like." Oh, as they say, snap.
5:55pm Like pretty much every earnings call in the past few months, Intel's betting on a horrendous first few months of 2009 ("Q1 is the trough"), some relief near the end of 2Q, and better days beyond. An analyst is asking if there are "more levers [Intel] can pull if current cost-reduction plans don't work out." Why yes, there are, say the execs.
5:42pm Smith says Intel will not be airing serious revenue-outlook data at this time. (Internally, they're planning for revenue around $7 billion.) First quarter's going to be nasty, though.
5:40pm Atom-based processors are apparently the strongest thing going in microprocessors, which were otherwise significantly down in 4Q. Revenue from Atom processors and chipsets was $500 million, which is up 50 percent. The company's reiterated several times on the call that the 32nm path is the one they're focusing most closely on going forward. Startup charges on that ramp-up include a "pretty steep" decline in costs in 1Q, as factory costs are cut back and the supply chain contracts. Things normalize in 2Q and after.
5:30pm Away we go, with Kevin S. leading the pack. Paul S. points out that this was a horrendous quarter -- um, thanks dude, we'd heard -- with this being just the second time in 20 years that Intel's had a worse 4Q than the previous 3Q. (At which point RealPlayer cuts out. That's about as surprising as what Otellini was saying about the economy for Mac users, I know.) The usual stiff-upper-lip patter ensues... but they're not going to reduce or eliminate their dividend. Money talks.
5:29pm EST: They're posted the earnings PDF in advance of the call, but not much in advance. Bullet points: 4Q revenues are down 19 percent sequentially at $8.2 billion; gross margin is down 53 percent, down 6 points sequentially; operating income was $1.5 billion, down 50 percent sequentially.
Quarterly net income is $234 million. Ouch. Just ouch. (That's down about 90 percent, folks.) Earnings per share is 4 cents.
For 2008 as a whole, revenue was $37.6 billion, down 2 percent year-over-year, or up a touch if you adjust for divestitures. Gross margin was 55 percent, up 3.5 points year-over year. Operating income was $9 billion, up 9 percent y-o-y. And annual net income was $5.3 billion, with earnings per share of 92 cents.