Joe Wilcox

Well, hell, it must be "five reasons" day here at Betanews, and I certainly didn't plan it that way. Earlier I posted "Five reasons why Apple will deliver iPhone 4 preorders early." Now it's Microsoft's "five reasons." I had planned to post this one yesterday but held back because of Apple's iOS 4 release, which gravity well pulled away tech readers' attention (surely the many blog posts or news stories made the update hard to ignore).

I completed the main contents of this post yesterday morning (Hey, I don't have an iPhone on which to test iOS 4) as a follow-up to Friday's "I have lost confidence in Steve Ballmer's leadership." I see that some pundits are taking swings at Microsoft. Yesterday, Henry Blodget asked: "Can Microsoft collapse?" My response: Why ask? This is a $60-billion revenue a year company. RealNetwork's founder Rob Glaser answers thequestion: "Why has Microsoft seemingly stopped innovating?" Considering Real's lack of innovation for most of the Noughties, Glaser is perhaps a good person to answer that question.

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The notices went out last night: iPhone 4 will arrive a day early for some people -- perhaps even all who successfully preordered on June 15 for a June 24 delivery date. Now why is that? I've got five reasons, but first the obligatory background information.

I placed my order around 7:40 p.m. PT on June 15. Hours earlier, many Apple enthusiast and tech blogs reported that iPhone 4 preorders had sold out and the new arrival date was July 2. I credit these, ah, mistaken reports for the sudden responsiveness of Apple's online iPhone 4 ordering system late on June 15. I finally got through the process with ease, after about a dozen failed attempts throughout the day.

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Apple is carefully manipulating its share price by the timing of certain product announcements; iPhone 4 is the clearest, recent example. Not that the manipulation is new. In December I asked: "Are Apple stock price gains the reason for recent tablet rumors?" The answer was an unequivocal "Yes!" based on share price gains aligned with rumors -- and Apple announcements that followed.

To be clear: In asserting manipulation, I don't mean to suggest someone is breaking the law or acting unethically. I liken it to a puppeteer masterfully and artistically moving marionettes across a stage. With respect to its share price, Apple is carefully timing certain announcements for maximum share price benefits, with an artist's -- or, perhaps better stated, a master marketer's -- skill.

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This just isn't my week for being right. On Tuesday there was confession: "I was wrong about Apple iPad." Today, I make another: I was wrong about Microsoft's CEO. Yesterday's Windows Embedded Handheld announcement shattered my remaining confidence in Steve Ballmer. About three weeks ago, I asserted: "Steve Ballmer is the right man to turn around Microsoft mobile." If yesterday's announcement is indicative of Microsoft's mobile strategy, then I was wrong. He isn't the right man, and I must now question if he should even continue leading Microsoft.

Since January, when I posted "Microsoft, don't give up on Steve Ballmer just yet," people have asked by way of Betanews comments, e-mail or Twitter how I can stand by the man, and I have been sharply criticized for the stance. Perhaps I like Ballmer's character too much. He is a rarity among corporate CEOs. Ballmer wears his heart on his sleeve. The man struggles to contain his excitement or to resist speaking his mind, despite years of media coaching. Ballmer is a "tell it like it is" kind of man, and I find the quality appealing.

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The world does need an Apple tablet -- and perhaps others -- contrary to what I asserted in late January. Gloaters will circle my admission like vultures pecking a carcass, but that's the penalty for being wrong. Yes, I was wrong. I admit it. Flail me in Betanews comments or other blogs. Surely Macheads will peck away even my bones. Go ahead. I won't often give you such opportunity.

There's strange and unexpected timing to my admission, which since the weekend I planned to write today. Last night, I saw that my former boss and colleague Michael Gartenberg scathingly slammed Wired for iPad in an Engadget post. He's wrong, too. Wired was to be my main example for what iPad publishing should be -- at least from an immersive content perspective. Now I need to also rebut Gartenberg's pithy but misguided commentary.

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Apple apologists need to get a grip regarding a reported US Federal Trade Commission investigation. It's not the least surprising, and Apple has a discernable monopoly around which business practices the FTC -- or even the US Justice Department -- would want to monitor.

The apologist line is this: Apple doesn't have a monopoly for cell phones and has the right to decide what developers can do or which ones have access to the iOS platform. In my May primer, "10 things you should know about Apple and antitrust," I explain how the company has two monopolies, and one of them is large enough to trigger an investigation (and there is official complaint from Adobe). If you haven't read that post, stop reading this one and go to that one. Then come back here, of course.

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On June 9, I asked: "Will you buy an Apple iPhone 4?" The answers are in via e-mail and comments. They are surprising, because they're so polarized. There aren't so many "maybes" among you as I expected. The majority of commenters are saying "No" to iPhone 4. The split is more two-thirds "Yes" among the people who sent e-mail.

I want to point out two differences from this post and others like it. Firstly, the comments are longer; I did less editing for space. Secondly, I only used comments or e-mail responses from people whose full names are clearly identified. However, the comments are still representative of them all.

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Guess what's coming to San Diego in two weeks? If you answered iPhone 4, congratulations for being right but not giving the right answer. Microsoft plans to open a new retail store on the same day (its second in California). The duo launches could be speculator competition and ground zero for fandom, should the "I'm a Mac" and "I'm a PC" crowds choose to rally for their camps. If the measure is the longest line on launch day, who will win?

In a rare lunchtime outing, today I hustled over to Fashion Valley Mall, where I was stunned to see the sign above. By the way, I snapped the photo using the Google Nexus One. What a lousy camera! Is the camera white balance-challenged or what? Nexus One muted the bright green, which I only partially revived through editing. Geez. Back on topic, yes, I was stunned -- by the date and by something else. The Microsoft Store is four shops down from the Apple Store. That's right four stores -- and a walkway between the middle two.

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Surely no one who regularly reads Betanews is surprised I ask the question. It was inevitable, like death or Whopper Wednesday. As usual, when I ask this kind of question, I'm looking for your responses -- in comments or by e-mail (joewilcox at gmail dot com). In a future post, I'll share your responses as I did with iPad. I asked the "will you buy" iPad question here and here, and offered your answers in separate January and March posts.

Apple and AT&T will start taking iPhone 4 preorders on June 15, and the phone officially goes on sale June 24. Preorders should help keep lines more manageable, as they did with iPad. I plan on hanging out at one of my local Apple Stores, interviewing people waiting in line and shooting video and photos. If you're in San Diego and willing to leave the baseball bat (gun, knife or other injuring tool) at home, look me up on iPhone 4 launch day. Maybe I could interview you.

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A day after Apple CEO Steve Jobs announced the iPhone 4, it's time for a reality check. Lots of people have questions, and we have answers -- even to stuff some readers might not have asked for. The list is more strategic than speeds-and-feeds informational. But first, quick links to yesterday's Betanews stories:

Additionally, over at my Oddly Together blog, I consolidated my tweets (and others' responses) during Job's keynote. My tweets -- quick reactions in real time -- are foundation for this post. I hadn't thought of Twitter as a notepad before, but I suddenly see the utility. Others might try using Twitter this way: Punch out quick inspirations as they come and collect them later for other use.

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Apple CEO Steve Jobs gave one of his better sales pitches during the Worldwide Developer Conference keynote earlier today. He had to. Gizmodo's iPhone 4 prototype series revealed the major details. Other than the gyroscope, iBooks and iMovie for iPhone, Jobs shared little that wasn't already known or reasonably guessed from Gizmodo's reporting about iPhone 4.

That's not to say the knowing spoiled the presentation. Jobs is simply too good a marketer. He has an amazing skill at emphasizing benefits while overlooking or diminishing shortcomings. Today he exerted a remarkably strong Reality Distortion Field, and it caught some tech users. Robert Scoble posted yesterday: "Back to Steve Jobs. If I were him I'd worry that I've lived without my iPhone for seven days so far and I haven't missed having the crappy cell phone service from AT&T, not to mention I like having the extra features of the Android OS that aren't yet available on the iPhone." Three days earlier, Scoble posted about his "experiences without an iPhone for six days so far." Bottom line: "Living without the iPhone has been a lot easier than I expect." But Jobs' WWDC keynote's RDF washed over Scoble, who today tweeted: "Is this enough to get me to give up Android? It has me itching."

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It's the question to ask today, when Apple is expected to announce the new iPhone, and as AT&T subscribers continue to see their upgrade eligibility dates moved up. From one perspective, changes in upgrade eligibility would seem like good customer service -- AT&T allowing iPhone owners to get the new model subsidized sooner. But, unless in a few hours Apple announces that iPhone will be available from other US carriers, the smartphone is exclusive to AT&T. The Federal Trade Commission and Justice Department often look critically at exclusive distribution arrangements, particularly if there is any hint of price fixing.

I've been reading about iPhone full-discounted upgrade eligibility changes for weeks, where a customer sees the date moved up many months to June. This morning, over at Apple Thoughts, Jeff Campbell asks: "Are you eligible? Find out today." He writes: "When I first checked mine months ago, I had my eligibility moved up to July of this year...I checked again on the AT&T website and found that not only had my phone eligibility been moved up but the other 4 iPhones on the account had also been moved up. Previously the other iPhones had varying dates of eligibility from August of this year to September of next year."

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Apple's HTML5 Showcase is supposed to demonstrate how wonderful the Web can be without plugins while adopting Web standards. But when going to the site in Google Chrome (I haven't tested other browsers), the user is greeted with: "You need to download Safari to view this demo." Oh yeah?

More: "This demo was designed with the latest Web standards supported by Safari. If you'd like to experience this demo, simply download Safari. It's free for Mac or PC, and it only takes a few minutes." Say that again? Isn't Chrome also based on WebKit? Shouldn't the browsers be about as equally supporting HTML5?

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Yesterday, I was talking with The Loop's Jim Dalrymple about AT&T's data-capped plans. Like other long-time iPhone users, he didn't seem too concerned after looking at his data usage. I gave him three reasons why AT&T changed to capped plans, to which he asked: "So did you write about that?" No. I had written a long post about AT&T's timing tactics but nothing really that succinctly explained why. So here I'll give five reasons why AT&T changed the data plans.

But first a little preface. Many long-time iPhone users -- at least those with high Net visibility -- don't seem so concerned about the new AT&T data plans. Yeah? Well, that's an easy position to take when you're not affected. You long-timers get to keep your unlimited data plans. Starting June 7th, everyone else is capped at 200MB or 2GB, depending on how much they're willing to pay. Many people on the new plans will carry a psychological burden: How much data did I use this month? I agree with Spencer Ante, who wrote yesterday at Wall Street Journal: "AT&T's pricing shift will test behavior." Keeping that in mind, this post will be two lists of the fives. The other: Suggesting ways AT&T should make the plans better for customers.

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Earlier today, Microsoft CEO Steve Ballmer spoke candidly with guru tech columnist Walt Mossberg at the D8 Conference. I found Ballmer's candor to be refreshing and it reaffirms my contention that he is the right man to lead Microsoft's mobile business.

"We were ahead of this game, in terms of software for phones," Ballmer told Mossberg. "We are not ahead of this game. We haven't fallen off the face of the planet, but we were ahead of this game and now we find ourselves at No. 5 in the market."

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