Joe Wilcox

Do you browse the Web on your phone, iPod touch or other portable wireless device? Congratulations, you're one of the 450 million mobile Internet users, according to IDC. The analyst firm today predicted that number would reach 1 billion by 2013.

I'll do some quick math. Apple has shipped more than 30 million iPhones, so there's a possible 6 percent or so of mobile Internet users -- and that's not counting more than 20 million iPod touch users. Another nearly 30 million Crackberry -- ah, BlackBerry -- addicts accounts for another 6 percent of users.

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Simply put: Apple doesn't play by the rules. It reinvents them. Apple applies what I call "David Thinking" to its broader business, product development and marketing. Apple is David to Microsoft Goliath -- and other ones, too. Goliath plays by one set of rules. David choses to change the rules, which favor his strengths rather than those of Goliath.

David Thinking is most provocative and surprising when Goliath acts like David. After all, David sometimes becomes Goliath; Apple is a giant in music with iPod and iTunes Music Store. But David turned Goliath also risks making mistakes that would allow another upstart advantage. Today, Apple is both David and Goliath, depending on market.

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Stranger things have happened than this. I think. Microsoft has formed a new group within the Server & Tools Business: The Server & Cloud Division, or SCD. Is it me, or is there some redundancy in the name, seeing as how cloud services run on servers?

"This change reflects the alignment of our resources with our strategy, and represents a natural evolution for Microsoft as the Windows Azure business moves from an advanced development project to a mainstream business," according to an uncredited post on Microsoft's Windows Server Division blog. The new group "combines the Windows Server & Solutions group and the Windows Azure group."

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Do you have AT&T as wireless carrier? Are you happy with the network service quality? I encourage Betanews readers to respond in comments to these questions, which are suddenly surreal now that AT&T has released the "Mark the Spot" app for iPhone. There's something comical about an app that tells AT&T about its connection problems. The app also is tacit admission that AT&T has voice service problems. Surely for some greedy lawyer, there's a lawsuit for that.

Some readers will ask why post a commentary like this one. What's newsie about whacking AT&T aside the head for its well-publicized service problems? Answer: Most of us here -- me writing and you reading -- are gadget freaks. Many American Betanews readers use iPhone, for which there is only one official carrier choice: AT&T. In that context, bad service is a problem. Additionally, it's the holidays, when some people give the gift of phone. Since most dumbphones and smartphones are sold subsidized and locked to a single carrier, network should be considered in any handset purchase.

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Nokia has long been one of my favorite tech companies, but recently I started to lose faith in its future. When an enthusiast/fan says something like that, a company either has a serious public image crisis or serious problems. Both situations are about equally bad. I want to believe in Nokia, I really do, but recent events unravel my confidence.

Nokia's fundamental problem is retreat. The company has started to retreat before the great econolypse. Now should be the time for Nokia to make new investments -- in products and research -- not pull back on them. Retreat signals to competitors that there is vulnerability, which also can unravel customers' confidence about buying new products. In October, I switched from AT&T to T-Mobile, because of constantly annoying dropped calls and in preparation for the Nokia N900. T-Mobile service satisfies, but I still haven't bought the N900. I'm too unnerved about Nokia's future and its product and services strategy.

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Should businesses let employees use their personal laptops at work? For 10 percent of mid-size businesses and enterprises, the answer is more than yes; they have employees using personal portables as primary work PCs. Today, Gartner released survey results from second quarter (why so late in the year, I ask) stating that number and its expected rise to 14 percent by mid-2010. Gartner surveyed 528 technology managers from companies with more than 500 employees.

I'm actually surprised the number isn't higher, and surely it is in other categories, such as smartphones phones. Official policy is one thing, what employees might actually do is another. According to various analyst reports, most enterprises only started deploying laptops, PDAs or smartphones after employees used them for work purposes.

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For years, analysts have opined about the iPod "halo effect" on Mac sales -- the idea being that people buying iPods who enjoy the experience and exposure to the Apple brand will be more likely to buy Macs. Mobile platform analytics firm Flurry, which data I am using for the first time, claims there is a second halo effect -- iPod touch to iPhone. Flurry puts some hard, and quite believable, data behind this assertion.

In a blog entry posted yesterday, Peter Farago, Flurry's vice president of marketing, described iPod touch as "Apple's weapon for mass [iPhone] consumption." His reasoning: Younger consumers buying iPod touch now and will buy iPhone later.

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Microsoft advertising has people claiming that "Windows 7 was my idea." I'd like to make "my idea" more real for Betanews readers, by offering a soapbox to give Microsoft a piece of your mind (be polite, but firm); first some context on why do it now.

For Microsoft, the New Year really is a new beginning. January 1 marks the half-way point in the company's fiscal year and the period leading into the annual review process. Employee reviews can't be good this year, with Microsoft morale low (or so I've been hearing) following calendar 2009 layoffs.

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Apple's apparent acquisition of music streaming service Lala is about improving iTunes music discovery and competitively combating Google search as a music discovery tool tied to free music streaming services. I say apparent acquisition because there is no official confirmation from Apple, although I'd be shocked if All Things Digital's Peter Kafka got it wrong. He has confirmation of a done deal, and Kafka's reporting record is outstandingly excellent.

Apple gets two major assets from Lala, some technology and the development team. While the development team is likely more important, the technology is valuable, too -- and both lead to the same place: Apple improving iTunes music discovery.

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I've got a new spelling for "Scrooge." M-i-c-r-o-s-o-f-t. The company has ended the Windows 7 Family Pack promotion, which is a nice Ba Humbug to you and yours for the holidays. Sure, it could be good for Microsoft's bottom line and perhaps partners' PC sales. But for the masses considering upgrading existing Windows XP/Vista PCs to 7, a good thing is suddenly bad.

Maybe Microsoft executives looked at Apple charging so much for Macs and thought, "Why discount Windows 7?" Perhaps, but generally companies offer greater discounts as the holidays approach, not take them away. Windows 7 Home Premium Family Pack offered three upgrade licenses for the tidy sum of $149.99. Now the upgrade price is $119.99 per license.

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As the holidays approach and New Years not long beyond, analysts turn ESPers as they try to predict the future. Sometimes, the predictions are so crazed, they're somewhere between alcoholically induced and reaching into an alternative universe where reality beats to other drums. The best measure of accuracy for the future is the past -- what analysts predicted for 2009.

I've randomly picked five that show just how wrong the predictions can be. Keep them in mind when reading 2010 predictions, like IDC's audacious claim that iPhone applications will triple -- to 300,000 -- by end of 2010.

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Some Betanews readers made such excellent comments to yesterday's post, "Can there be a free Web if no one makes money?," I will respond to some of them with another post rather than piecemeal in comments. The current advertising model isn't sufficient to handle all the online content out there -- and there will be more of it.

Yesterday, commenter bigsexy022870 wrote: "Maybe I am missing something. But I thought that ads paid for all this free stuff. I mean Google produces nothing yet it's super rich. Every Website is loaded with ads."

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It hasn't been a good day for anyone working on Microsoft's Windows Phone team. This morning, IDC made the ridiculous prediction that the number of iPhone/iPod touch applications would triple to 300,000 by end of 2010. Later, here at Betanews, Carmi Levy slammed Microsoft's Windows mobile strategy.

Yes, Windows Mobile is down -- really low -- but the operating system isn't bad. The mobile OS is good at the core, meaning the kernel, and multitasks pretty well. It's the user interface and partner model that needs a makeover -- and awfully fast. Microsoft is quickly falling behind Apple and Google, but there's hope. Android is a bigger threat than anything Apple has got, because of competing licensing and partner models. Don't give up, Microsoft, but for frak's sake do get a move on.

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Paywall is suddenly a hot topic as free content turns many longstanding businesses -- news among -- to apparent ruin. News Corp. Chairman Rupert Murdoch is mad as hell, and he's not going to take this anymore. This week Murdoch repeated his call for paid services during a U.S. Federal Trade Commission public workshop. "We need to do a better job of persuading consumers that high-quality, reliable news and information does not come free," he said. "Good journalism is an expensive commodity."

But how is the value of the digital content, whether news or some other commodity, determined when so much of it is free? Bill Buxton, principal researcher for Microsoft Research, briefly addressed this topic during an October talk at the Business Innovation Factory. "When the cost of goods approaches zero, the effective price inevitably for that product goes to zero," he said. "We've seen it in music, and the music pirates -- maybe they were bad, maybe they weren't -- were not causing it; they were just accelerating it. Every single other entity that goes digital has zero cost of goods. So, whatever's happened in music is going to happen in literature, news, cinema, theater and so on."

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I despise browser toolbars. They're ugly, clutter up the browser and reduce viewable content space. But unexpectedly, I've found a better toolbar. This old crankypuss might soon be spending time at the new Bing Bar, which is a helluva good name, by the way.

There's much to like about Bing: The advertising, the name and most importantly the approach to user interface design. I love Bing TV commercials, by the way. Good advertising uses familiar motifs, scenarios and situations, stuff that most anyone can relate to. Familiarity is important. Who can't relate to information overload -- too much needless information coming too fast to process?

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