Enterprise cloud email and collaboration has reached the 'tipping point', or will in 2012, maybe 2014 -- well, someday

The new math that analysts use to make predictions is sometimes amazing to comprehend. Gartner predicts that so-called cloud email and collaboration services (CECS) have reached a "tipping point" based on projected 10 percent enterprise adoption by 2014. So it's not even 10 percent yet, but, hey, that's okay, enterprises are rushing to the cloud. Or are they?

I'm a big proponent of cloud computing, and have predicted the big push to cloud-connected devices for years. But even I have to gape in wonder at the concept of 10 percent in three years being a "tipping point".

"Ultimately, we expect CECS to become the dominant provisioning model for the next generation of communication and collaboration technologies used in enterprises", Tom Austin, Gartner fellow, says in a statement. "However, it is not dominant today, it will not be the only model, and it will take a decade or more for the transition to play out. Right now, the list of reasons to move to CECS is long, as is the list of reasons to avoid it".

So Gartner is doing some long math here, looking at investments made over the next couple years that will lead to a long transition to the cloud. But, hell, could Austin use enough qualifiers?

But wait! This whole "tipping point" thing gets more other universe-like. Gartner previously predicted that 10 percent number would be reached by end of 2012. The analyst firm pushed out the forecast by two years. Is this "tipping point" more wishful thinking on Gartner's part?

Austin acknowledges problems:

The first is asset inertia. Organizations seek to extract maximum value from their investments in email, and switching early can be like trading in a 2-year-old, low-mileage automobile. Secondly, senior IT managers are much more focused on strategic initiatives that help them to grow or transform their enterprise's business, and moving to cloud-based or SaaS email services is generally viewed as a cost-saving move rather than a strategic initiative. Finally, the practical realities of the vendors' CECS offerings, when examined up close, are sometimes less compelling than the glossy stories they tell.

Perception is another problem. Enterprises are used to paying an "early adopter premium" when adopting new technologies "ahead of the curve", Austin says. "However, cloud-based collaboration services appear to be forward priced and, while we do expect the cost of CECS to follow a cost-learning curve, the motive for much of the investment in CECS appears to be cost reduction. Thus, if CECS otherwise makes sense for an enterprise, it would be far better off proceeding now, while requiring that the CECS supplier guarantees to continue to reduce prices as prices in general fall in the market".

The point: In the future, prices may rise as more enterprises adopt and become dependent on cloud email and collaboration services. Right now, service providers are aggressively pricing to woo enterprises into adopting.

Of course, at the speed this "tipping point" is coming, higher pricing might be years -- who knows, even a decade -- away.

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