Threats to encryption, security fears and a race to gain a competitive edge -- quantum predictions for 2025

As we approach the end of the year it's time to start wondering what the next one will have in store. As always we'll be running a series of pieces looking at what industry experts think will be key tech industry trends for 2025.

We start with a look at quantum, which is getting ever closer to widespread commercial deployment and could open up great opportunities but is also leading to increasing fears about security.

Brian Spanswick, CIO and CISO at Cohesity believes quantum is set to overtake AI as the main security concern. "Many of the fears expressed after the arrival of ChatGPT and the presence of AI in everyday life have not materialized like autonomous systems threatening human engagement and AI's potential to brute force data encryption. This is not meant to downplay the impact that we've seen with the emergence of AI, this is meant to illustrate the significantly greater impact we are going to see from the advent of quantum computing. In 2025 organizations need to at least develop a plan to migrate to encryption that isn't vulnerable to quantum computing attacks."

He's not the only one to think this. "Quantum computers could potentially break current encryption standards, necessitating a shift toward quantum-resistant algorithms," says Dan Wilbricht, president at Optiv + ClearShark. "Organizations will invest in quantum-safe cryptography and explore quantum key distribution (QKD) to secure communications."

Richard Ford, CTO at Integrity360 thinks we need to start planning for quantum now:

Quantum may seem light years away, and quite the leap, but it's a major issue that businesses need to begin to plan for and address. Q-Day, when quantum computing advances to the point that it can break the encryption methods safeguarding our data, will throw the cybersecurity sector into a state of flux due to our dependency on encryption. Cryptography has been the predominant means to protect data assets for decades but under quantum computing encryption will become relatively trivial to crack, effectively putting techniques such as brute forcing on steroids.

Quantum-resistant encryption techniques have been developed, but the transition will be complex and costly. Encryption is deeply embedded in many software applications, making it difficult to swap out, it may require hardware to be upgraded and communication protocols to be updated.

This is echoed by Ravi Srivatsav, CEO of DataKrypto, "As quantum computing advances, organizations worldwide are growing increasingly concerned about its potential impact on cybersecurity. While experts estimate the post-quantum computing (PQC) era is still five to 15 years away, forward-thinking companies are preparing for this inevitable future. Hackers also aren't waiting for the PQC era; they're harvesting data now, anticipating future decryption capabilities."

Sam Peters, chief product officer at ISMS.online thinks we'll see changes to encryption methods. "While the quantum computing revolution is still on the horizon, a more immediate concern could be quantum-inspired cryptography. Hackers may begin experimenting with quantum algorithms to solve traditional encryption problems more efficiently, weakening some existing cryptographic standards ahead of actual quantum computers. This pre-quantum era might see a rise in hybrid encryption methods that combine current and post-quantum algorithms long before full-scale quantum computers are widely available."

Jesse Emerson, VP of managed security services, Americas at Trustwave, believes, "Quantum computing will begin to crack strong encryption systems, prompting significant investments in quantum-resistant models for securing information and communications. While this may not have a material impact in 2025, it will become a key focus for nation-states and organizations with sensitive data and low risk tolerances."

Fred Rivain, CTO at Dashlane also worries about encryption. "In 2025, the threat of quantum computing will escalate, putting encrypted data at risk of being stolen and decrypted later by quantum-capable attackers. It's no longer a question of if quantum computers will be able to break the current cryptographic primitives we use everyday when accessing online services, but when. To mitigate this threat, businesses need to create a quantum threat roadmap to prepare for the post-quantum future. This roadmap should assess risks by identifying where cryptography is used in their systems and services, staying updated on NIST-approved quantum-safe algorithms, and integrating them into existing infrastructures. Budgeting for these upgrades now will mitigate future financial strain, ensuring that organizations are prepared for the inevitable technological wave to come."

It's not all security worries though, Chris Royles, EMEA field CTO at Cloudera believes that as quantum becomes available there will be a rush to exploit its capabilities:

Quantum computing is set to overshadow AI as the next major technological revolution. Rapid development is underway, with organizations investing heavily in next-generation data centers equipped to provide ultra-cold temperatures, specialized infrastructure, and massive power requirements required to support quantum systems.

The potential value of quantum breakthroughs is immeasurable, from accelerating drug discovery and genetic reprogramming in healthcare to pushing energy closer to fusion, potentially rendering traditional power sources obsolete. Beyond global leaders such as Google, and Microsoft, quantum technology will also be offered as a cloud service, enabling businesses to access its power without building their own infrastructure.

As quantum emerges as a game-changer, this shift will trigger a race as companies rush to harness quantum’s capabilities, using it to enhance AI capabilities and gain a competitive edge.

"While organizations are investing billions of dollars in AI technologies, some technology companies and research institutions are funding projects to explore the next frontier of computing: Quantum AI," says Manisha Khanna, AI strategist, at data analytics company SAS. "The convergence of quantum computing and artificial intelligence, moving toward quantum AI (QAI) is real and promises to unlock new levels of computational power and efficiency. Once the essential parts like talent and infrastructure are in place in the next five to 10 years, QAI will produce enhanced algorithms that run on lightning-fast quantum computers to improve technology’s performance. This performance improvement will rapidly help solve societal challenges including drug discovery, supply chain management, risk assessment and more."

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