Joe Wilcox

One week from today, the first Windows Phone 7 handsets go on sale in the United States. The international furor is over, but Microsoft's home country remains. The question: "Which Windows Phone 7 smartphone will you buy?" I asked in mid October, and Betanews readers answered in droves. Of course, since we have a global readership some of the respondents may already have purchased their phones. I asked the question before international sales started.

Microsoft's handset partners are offering nine Windws Phone 7 models this year, with a tenth model coming in early 2011. There are five choices here in the United States. On AT&T: LQ Quantum, HTC Surround and Samsung Focus. On T-Mobile: HTC HD7. The Venue Pro is available from Dell. Other models include the HTC Mozart, HTC 7 Pro, HTC 7 Trophy, LG Optimus 7 and Samsung Omnia. The majority of readers responding by e-mail and in comments choose Focus, although the HD7 is close runner up.

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Well, it's not about customers.

Microsoft has quite aggressively touted HTML5 during PDC 2010, which wraps up today. It's seemingly inconsistent with Microsoft's revamped cloud strategy, which is very much about taking propriety software to the cloud. How then does Microsoft's platform-independent HTML5 approach reconcile with extending the proprietary Office-Windows-Windows Server applications stack into the cloud?

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Apple is now No. 4 in global handset shipments -- not smartphones, but all mobiles. The share gains also put Apple ahead of Research in Motion in third-quarter data that IDC released late yesterday (presumably while I covered Microsoft earnings). Apple's ascension pushed Sony Ericsson out of the top 5 for the first time since IDC started tabulating mobile shipments six years ago. The top 5 achievement is huge validation for Apple, which before the June 2007 release of the original iPhone had no presence in the global handset market.

However, the more significant measure is yet to come, and it might explain comments CEO Steve Jobs made during last week's Apple earnings conference call. Jobs expressed displeasure about how some analyst firms count phones. "Unfortunately there is no solid data on how many Android phones are shipped each quarter," he asserted. "We hope that manufacturers will soon start reporting the number of Android handsets that they ship each quarter. But today that just isn't the case. Gartner reported that around 10 million Android phones were shipped in the June quarter, and we await to see if iPhone or Android was the winner in this most recent quarter."

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[Editor's Note: This was a live document from about 4:36 p.m. EDT to 5:50 p.m. Refresh page for updates.]

Microsoft started fiscal 2011, which first quarter closed on September 30, ahead of analyst consensus. Slower PC shipment growth didn't take the spark out of Windows revenues, and Office 2010 delivered during its first full quarter of license sales. Microsoft announced earnings after the bell, setting a record executives won't be touting: Revenues fell below Apple, by more than $4 billion, yet another sign that the aging Office-Windows-Windows Server applications stack is declining in relevance before cloud-connected mobile devices.

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The answer to the question may be a question: If it walks like a duck and quacks like a duck, is it a goose?

By analysts' criteria, the 11.6-inch MacBook Air is no netbook. Strange then that many Betanews readers regard Air to be a netbook -- and an overpriced one at that. But even if Air is classified as something else, it could easily suck away netbook sales, as analysts contend iPad has done. MacBook Air being a netbook or not is really independent of its impact on netbook sales. That said, in researching this story, I found that many readers (and real consumers) don't separate the two concepts. I wonder if they really need to.

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Apple had better not do its market research at Betanews, and executives should hope that you, our readers, aren't the measure of interest in MacBook Air. In response to last week's question "Will you buy MacBook Air," the majority responded "No." However, as usual, there was a marked difference between those folks commenting to the story and readers responding by e-mail. A slightly greater number of e-mail respondents say they will buy one of Apple's two thin-and-light models.

Apple unveiled new MacBook Airs -- in new 11.6-inch and updated 13.3-inch display sizes -- during an October 20 media event dubbed "Back to the Mac." Standard configs for the 11.6-inch model sell for $999 and $1,999 and $1,299 and $1,599 for the 13.3-inch Air. Many respondents used the more typical speeds-and-feeds measure to evaluate the, ah, Air quality. Nicholas Gerstenberger expressed sentiments shared by many other Betanews commenters responding in comments: "Old CPU tech, 64GB max drive (even if it is SSD) and a $999 price tag place way over a fully optioned laptop with optical drive 500GB 7200 rpm hard drive and loads of RAM. Sorry I'll pass."

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I used to like cookies. Oatmeal raisin. Chocolate chip. Oreos, if dipped in frosty milk. No longer. I hate cookies, thanks to all the privacy-snooping bits left on my computer -- whether or not I want these crumbs. Today, I've got another reason to hate cookies and to demand that all the frakers sending information in the clear over the Internet cease and desist: Firesheep.

What? You haven't heard about the new Firefox plug-in that lets anyone as capable as four year-olds to snatch your log-in information out of thin air? Well, hell, put down your damn Starbucks cup and disconnect from the open WiFi network (after reading this post, of course)! This plug-in, which quietly released yesterday, is literally hacking for idiots. If you're smart enough to install a Firefox plug-in, you, too, can snatch credentials from backwater, unsecured services -- like Facebook.

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Microsoft's former Chief Software Architect is blogging again -- after nearly five years' absence. Ray Ozzie has posted a disturbing memo, "Dawn of a New Day," sent to Microsoft "executive staff and direct reports." Eh, I thought Ozzie no longer had direct reports. The memo cheers Microsoft's services strategy extending Office and Windows to the cloud. Early sections of Ozzie's missive reads more like a press release for the past -- dawn of the old day -- and bears little resemblance to the interoperable, operating system in the clouds pitch that he made for years -- at least until PDC 2009. That said, he also issues a warning about a post-PC era Microsoft executives shouldn't ignore. Seeing as Ozzie was ignored before, what hope is there that they'll listen now? As I asserted 10 days ago, "It's a shame about Ray Ozzie."

The memo's timing is most certainly not coincidental. October 18th news about Ozzie's demotion and imminent departure came the day before Microsoft announced Office 365, essentially a forthcoming extension of the existing cloud-based productivity suite strategy. Office 365 represents a cloud services strategy many steps removed from the one Ozzie originally articulated for Microsoft. Ozzie represented a different vision. Microsoft dispatched the visionary before asserting an extension to the Office-Windows-Windows applications stack, rather than fully embracing the cloud-connected -- anytime, anywhere and on anything -- strategy he long advocated. Ozzie's memo comes just days before Microsoft convenes PDC 2010, on October 28th. In the strangest of coincidences -- or not if Ozzie is trying to make another point -- the memo is dated the 28th. There is no date stamp on the blog post, but it looks like an October 25th posting. His last gargantuan memo was Oct. 28, 2005, so timing has two points of significance -- the five-year anniversary and his last word before the next Microsoft developer conference.

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It's the question I'm asking myself, so I'll ask it of you. Will you buy one of Apple's two thin-and-light laptops, either the 11.6-inch or 13.3-inch MacBook Air? Apple announced the new computers yesterday. As usual, please respond in comments, or e-mail joewilcox at gmail dot com. Please don't just answer yes or no, but offer reasons why or why not you would buy either of Apple's sleek, thin-and-light laptops.

(For those readers wondering about answers to the question "Which Windows Phone 7 smartphone will you buy?" I'll post today or tomorrow. I waited for international sales to start and for the first reviews to come out (both yesterday). I'm on Microsoft's "frak you" short list, so there are no review units here.)

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Inside the new MacBook Air

Today in San Francisco, Apple unveiled a new MacBook Air, updated iLife digital media suite and beta of FaceTime for the Mac. The company also previewed Mac OS X 10.7, aka "Lion," which will bring features found in iOS "Back to the Mac," playing off the title to today's media event. Apple CEO Steve Jobs shared the stage with other executives to demo the new products. Not since October 2008 has Jobs spent so little time on stage during a major Apple event. But in sharing the stage, he strongly delivered the big announcements: 11.6-inch MacBook Air, Lion and a shocker -- Apple will launch an applications store for Mac OS X 10.6 (Snow Leopard) within 90 days.

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There's a saying that the more you have, the more you fear losing it.

Apple's CEO made a surprise appearance during yesterday's fiscal 2010 fourth quarter earnings call. Jobs said he couldn't resist participating, given Apple's record $20.34 billion revenue. But he leveled most of his comments at competitors, and in quite defensive posture. Now why is that? Apple's iPhone blew past Wall Street estimates by as many as 3 million units. The iPad outsold Macs and, according to Gartner and IDC analysts, sucked sales away from Windows netbooks and low-cost notebooks. Apple controls the largest and most successful applications store on the planet. The company sits on a cash horde of more than $51 billion. Then there are the quarterly results, which topped consensus estimates by nearly $2 billion.

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I've never been too good with names
The cellar door was open, I could never stay away
I know it's probably not my place
It's either or, I'm hoping for a simple way to say
It's a shame about Ray
In the stone, under the dust
His name is still engraved
Some things need to go away
It's a shame about Ray

-- From Lemonheads song "It's a Shame About Ray"

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[Editor's Note: This was a live document starting at 4:46 p.m. EDT through the end of Apple's earnings call at 6:46 p.m.]

Apple didn't disappoint Wall Street analysts obsessed by goings on at One Infinite Loop -- delivering, after the Bell closed today, record fiscal fourth quarter and year 2010 financial results. In the days and hours before earnings disclosure, numerous blogs and news sites (this one included) mused about the role of iPad, which soared above strong Mac sales. In just two quarters, iPad has opened up a new line of business generating nearly $5 billion in revenue. Meanwhile, iPhone shipments ascended past analyst consensus by about 2.5 million units.

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It's a follow-up question to another question posed in late August: "Is Apple the real U.S. PC market share leader -- or soon will be?" I ask both questions based on another: Is iPad a personal computer? I assert "Yes" based on function, but neither Gartner nor IDC, which both released preliminary third-quarter PC shipment data late yesterday, classify iPad as a PC. Right now, iPad isn't really counted anywhere, despite generating $2.17 billion in new revenue during the launch quarter. If iPad is counted as a PC, then based on analysts' projected tablet shipments and IDC's Q3 data, Apple could rank as No. 1 in the United States. What is iPad then?

Even without counting the tablet, Apple had a great quarter. In the United States, Apple shipped 1.999 million (why isn't it rounded up to 2 million) Macs during Q3, according to IDC. U.S. Mac shipments grew 24.1 percent year over year reaching 10.6 percent market share, up from 8.9 percent in Q3 2009. IDC put Apple at No. 3 in the United States, but Gartner asserted No. 4, with 1,831,664 units to Acer's 1,848,511 for a difference of 16,847 units. Gartner had U.S. Mac shipments growing 13.7 percent year over year with third-ranked Acer falling 21 percent. Apple's market share was 10.4 percent, according to Gartner. Either Apple sold a helluva lot of Macs during Q3 or the company stuffed the retail channel with stock; Gartner and IDC only measure shipments into the channel not out of it. Given Apple's usually tight inventory management, I'd wager on sales.

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Surely that question isn't unexpected. Last week I asked "Will you buy Windows Phone 7?" and the majority of Betanews readers responding by e-mail said they will buy, while some said they will not. You've had two days since Windows Phone 7's official launch to explore the features and learn about the nine handsets that will be available later this month (across Europe) and next month (in the United States). Now it's time for you to share with the world which phone you will buy or would buy if available on your carrier. Please answer in comments or e-mail joewilcox at gmail dot com.

Fred Schultz was among the Betanews readers who wants to buy a Windows Phone 7 handset but won't because there is no device yet available for Verizon (in the United States, AT&T and T-Mobile initially will carry WP7 smartphones). Last night he e-mailed: "OK, now after seeing it I am obsessed, and a little PO'd that Verizon doesn't have it. I would buy it on day 1!" I asked: "Whoa, are saying you'll switch carriers and buy on November 8th, Fred?" To which he replied: "Too complicated, family plan, 5 cells, Fios TV and Internet at home, but I will threaten."

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