Joe Wilcox

Would you be Steve Ballmer's Facebook Friend?

That's the question I started asking last night. But there is another. Would Microsoft's CEO accept me as friend? Or you?

Yesterday, Nick Eaton of Seattle PI's "The Microsoft Blog" pointed to what he believed to be "Steve Ballmer's real Facebook page." Welcome to Facebook, Steve, assuming that's really you. I've been on the service since 2006. Could I offer you some tips?

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Really? New Windows Phone 7 commercials rock

For months I've been saying that marketing, more than technology, would define (or fail to) Windows Phone 7's launch. If Microsoft could only get the messaging right. Earlier today, I posted about how important it is for Microsoft to make phones running its mobile operating system be highly personal. I actually wrote the 1,400-word missive last night, not knowing Microsoft would make personal such a priority; I simply added quotes from today's Windows Phone 7 launch event to make the analysis current. From putting the "P" in personal to smart messaging to simply brilliant advertising, Microsoft has pulled back the curtains on Windows Phone 7 in oh-so right fashion.

Last month, I explained what Microsoft needed to do today: "There must be aggressive aspirational marketing that is at least as good as recent Bing, Internet Explorer and Windows 7 advertising...Microsoft made the right, positive impressions when rebranding Windows Live Search to Bing -- thanks to supporting marketing. Windows Mobile is dead. Long live Windows Phone. It's a new brand that buyers must rightly meet."

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How should Microsoft open the curtains on Windows Phone 7?

Microsoft's launch of Windows Phone 7 is a turning point for the company. Either Microsoft will turn back to its enterprise applications stack past or turn a page that opens a new chapter for future expansion. Should Microsoft fail to deftly execute, its computing and informational relevance will likely decline, much like IBM in the 1980s and 1990s. Windows Phone 7 is Microsoft's IBM PC moment, but the course doesn't have to be the same as Big Blue three decades ago. Much depends on Microsoft marketing and how much the company embraces the cloud connected mobile device applications stack rather than clings to the Office-Windows-Windows Server app stack.

Microsoft CEO Steve Ballmer officiated today's Windows Phone 7 launch in New York. The locale was meant to reassure Wall Street that Microsoft has a viable and even winning mobile strategy. Ballmer asserted that Microsoft "built a different kind of phone." He said that Windows Phone 7 isn't so much about what users are going to do with the phone but how they're going to do it. Windows Phone 7 will be available on "nine different phones" when WP7 "ships here in the United States in November." Official device availability is November 8th. Windows Phone 7 handsets will be available from operators in 30 countries, making the phones "wonderfully mine," Ballmer asserted. Microsoft's marketing position: Windows Phone 7 is a "fresh start for the smartphone." But is it a fresh start for Microsoft mobile? Ballmer obviously took the position of yes.

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You WILL NOT buy Windows Phone 7

Who will line up to get a new Microsoft-powered handset when Windows Phone 7 officially launches on Monday? Betanews readers answered the who will in my previous post. They responded to an earlier question: "Will you buy Windows Phone 7?" About 70 percent of the e-mail respondents will buy. The naysayers, while fewer in number, give some very good reasons why not Windows Phone 7.

I expected more of a fifty-fifty split between the respondents, perhaps with even more Betanews readers saying no to Windows Phone 7. Well, hell, what do I know? To be clear, a few hundred readers, whether responding by e-mail or in comments, is no measure of WP7's sales potential. But both groups' reasons for buying or not are meaningful,

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You WILL buy Windows Phone 7

Perhaps Windows Phone 7 won't come dead on arrival after all. Maybe the analysts and naysaying pundits don't give Microsoft the respect it deserves. Maybe there is enormous pent up demand for Windows Phone 7. Maybe the silent majority that loves Microsoft products has waited for this day -- ah Monday, when Windows Phone 7 officially launches.

Three days ago, I asked: "Will you buy Windows Phone 7?" The response was immediate and overwhelming: More than 150 comments to the post and more than 3 times the usual number of e-mail responses I normally get to buying questions. Among the e-mail respondents, the majority plan to buy a Windows Phone 7 device. Even among those saying nay, many expressed interest if circumstances were different, such as Microsoft getting the product to market faster (they couldn't wait and already got something else) or limited carrier availability (in the United States, no Verizon. Yet.). Most of the e-mail respondents who chose something else bought or will buy an Android handset -- that's a painful dig for Microsoft, because Android more directly competes with potential Windows Phone 7 developers and smartphone buyers than iPhone.

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Will you buy Windows Phone 7?

It's a question I've asked before, but it comes with new urgency. Microsoft will officially launch Windows Phone 7 in six days, on October 11th, with main event in New York City. The analysts give Windows Phone 7 little to no hope of catching rivals. Gartner predicts Microsoft's mobile software will fall below "other" by 2014. But analysts peering into crystal balls, and often seeing fantasy futures, won't be considering a Windows Phone 7 purchase. You will.

So I simply ask: Will you buy a Windows Phone 7 smartphone? But a yes or no answer isn't good enough. I want reasons. Particularly for potential buyers, what are three reasons (more if you like) why you will buy into the Windows Phone 7 cosmos? For regular Betanews readers who are Microsoft fans, this is a great opportunity to rally for your company. But be smart, by being specific. Share what you hope to gain from a Windows Phone 7 smartphone rather than generally congratulate Microsoft or assert that somehow, someway the WP7 stormtroopers will retake the palace. Please answer in comments -- or, better, by email: joewilcox at gmail dot com. I'll compile the best responses into a separate post.

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Microsoft brings back Windows 7 Family Pack -- that's three Home Premium licenses for $150

As marketing tactics go, Microsoft's Windows 7 Family Pack revival is shrewdly timed. That's right, Family Pack is back -- and for a limited time. According to Microsoft's Windows Blog, "while supplies last," whatever that means. Microsoft is drumming the public relations ahead of October 22nd global availability, when consumers can grab a box with three Windows 7 Home Premium licenses for about 150 bucks. The software deal already is available in the United States direct from Microsoft or from "select" retailers.

The reasons aren't rocket science for the timing, one of which Microsoft's blog post hints at -- Windows Live Essentials 2011, which officially released late last week. "Upgrading to Windows 7 from Windows XP also lets you take advantage to one of all the benefits of the new Windows Live Essentials 2011," Ashley Brown blogs. "Windows Live Essentials is a free suite of software designed to complete your Windows 7 experience." It's a marketing pitch but also an admission: Windows Live Essentials 2011 requires Windows 7 or Vista. XP users aren't allowed.

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Movie Review: 'The Social Network'

Near the end of David Fincher's movie about Facebook, a young attorney tells CEO Mark Zuckerberg: "You're not an asshole, Mark. You're just trying so hard to be one." It's something of an apology for a movie that makes Zuckerberg appear every bit the asshole.

Early in the movie, Zuckerberg's girlfriend dumps him, saying: "You're going to be successful and rich. But you're going to go through life thinking that girls don't like you because you're a tech geek. I want you to know, from the bottom of my heart, that won't be true. It'll be because you're an asshole." Her comment and the one later bookends the movie. But there's something about the early asshole characterization that doesn't fit. The movie opens with Zuckerberg talking to the girlfriend (Erica Albright, played by Rooney Mara), and he comes off every bit the stereotypical over-intellectual, socially inept geek. He speaks his mind, to a fault.

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If iPad isn't cannibalizing Mac sales, what about Windows PCs?

That was my first question after reading a press release about NPD's new report "iPad Owner Study." This is why analysts aren't reporters: The report title has about as much reader appeal as a cardboard box (Maybe Bing or Google search will scoop it up). But, hey, people paying for the report want the data, not flashy titles. As to my question, Stephen Baker, NPD's vice president of industry analysis, succinctly told me: The iPad "is cannibalizing nothing in the PC business."

Oh yeah, then why does NPD's press release, issued today, state that "13 percent of iPad owners surveyed bought an iPad instead of a PC." Baker had a good answer for that: "13 percent is a bite, not a cannibal, and just because sales are slowing when iPad is showing up doesn't mean the two are related; and just because everyone sees all these people using iPads doesn't mean they didn't buy a PC now. It may mean that in the future but the numbers argue that Windows 7, tough comparables, flat pricing, weak economy are much more to blame."

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Microsoft: Windows Live Spaces already dead, WordPress.com will only get 1% of 30M users

Windows Live Spaces' shutdown may not be a big win for WordPress.com, after all. According to internal e-mail messages obtained by Betanews, Microsoft expects only about 1 percent of Windows Live Spaces bloggers to move to WordPress.com. If not there then where? In the e-mail exchange, one Microsoft executive asserts about the 30 million active Windows Live Spaces blogs: "Most are dead."

The e-mail exchange took place on Sept. 28, the day after Automattic and Microsoft revealed that Windows Live Spaces would shut down in about six months and that bloggers could migrate their sites to WordPress.com. The announcement asserts there are 30 million "active" Windows Live Spaces blogs. But the e-mail exchange suggests otherwise.

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Why are 30 million Microsoft refugees headed to WordPress.com?

Microsoft has a long history of rewarding loyal partners.

"Partners?" you say. Yes, partners. Automattic, the company behind WordPress.com, uses Microsoft Azure services. Both companies revealed the partnership during Microsoft's November 2009 developer conference. Now I would never suggest any kind of quid pro quo arrangement, whereby Automattic agreed to use Azure (and take the PDC 2009 stage promoting the relationship), with the promise of getting Windows Live Spaces bloggers when the service later shut done. Others' tongues may wag, but not mine. I see a simple partnership, but a surprising one nevertheless. After all, WordPress' core software is open source.

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The bright spot in Microsoft's mobile OS disaster is...

...There's no place to go but up. But up doesn't have to be an arduous climb.

That's the attitude Microsoft product managers and marketers should adopt when launching Windows Phone 7. Microsoft has been humbled by upstarts Apple and Google; from that admission comes a fresh start. Windows Mobile has already lost the major battles of the mobile phone wars. Windows Phone cannot win if Microsoft plays by the rules set by its adversaries. The company must instead engage guerilla tactics, starting by leveraging off core strengths -- and Xbox gaming and mobile Office simply aren't enough. This kind of thinking might yet pull Microsoft out of the mobile OS gutter.

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Bye Bye Blockbuster

That Blockbuster filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection isn't surprising. Holding out for so long is the real shocker. I expected today's filing at the beginning of 2009. This outcome was inevitable and may yet foreshadow future bankruptcy filings from other dinosaurs of the retail analog age, such as Borders Books.

But Blockbuster can't just blame digital delivery for its demise. Based on my own experience -- and surely that of others -- the movie rental retailer failed to adapt its business and technology practices to the Internet era. Blockbuster will need to do more than restructure its debt to survive Chapter 11. Executives will have to fundamentally restructure the business and most importantly the customer experience. Other armchair analyses surely will highlight the external problems, such as competition from digital content delivery and high-cost of maintaining retail stores. I'll focus on customer experience and expectations in the instant, connected era.

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Betanews readers offer mixed reactions to IE9

Last week I asked: "Can IE9 bring back Microsoft's glory days?" You answered. As I write, there are 65 comments to the post, and I received dozens of e-mail responses about Internet Explorer 9 beta. Also, as expressed in the more than 160 comments to Ed Oswald's post "IE9 will leave a significant portion of Windows users behind," many of you are miffed the browser doesn't support XP.

In this post, I share your reactions to IE9, the majority from e-mails. This morning, Matt Buono expressed his excitement about the browser, which he described as "fantastic." Dan Locker, an alliance manager with a West Coast Microsoft partner, called IE9 a "huge disappointment." He asked not to be identified because of his work with Microsoft; the name here is pseudonym. Jonah Takalua asserts: "IE9 is quick to start up and runs great so far. I liken it to the browser version of Win 7 with IE8 being Vista."

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Can IE9 bring back Microsoft's glory days?

That's a question for you to answer. Not analysts. Not armchair pundits. Not me. But you. Internet Explorer 9 beta is the most significant Microsoft browser release since IE3 launched in August 1996. IE9 is streamlined like no Microsoft browser before it, radically departing from recent versions' more cluttered interfaces. Microsoft also is touting IE9's adherence to Web standards, which is a trend among all major browser developers. Somebody pinch me: Wasn't IE3 the first browser supporting CSS (even if only partially), something Microsoft is big-time promoting for IE9?

I want to essentially crowdsource my IE9 beta review, putting Betanews readers' reaction in front. If you've downloaded IE9 beta, please share in comments or by e-mail (joewilcox at gmail dot com) your reactions and assessments of the browser. Some readers regularly bitch about my writing style. Fine. Shut up and put up. Your responses will be my IE9 review. If you don't like how I write, then instead of complaining you should tap, tap, tap the keyboard and post your IE9 reaction in comments or by email. I would prefer to identify responders by real name rather than something like fglpss. Please email, even if you comment.

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