Will the iPhone be the last to get Flash video?

After one technology initiative involving Adobe and processor manufacturer ARM was announced last April at the CTIA Wireless show, another one with much the same purpose between the same parties was announced this morning.

From a technical standpoint, there should be very few -- if any -- boundaries to the ability of Apple's current ARM-based iPhone design to run Flash video. But Apple continues to show obstinacy to the idea; and Adobe continues to follow a kind of parallel development course that could, at presumably any time, lead to Flash on the iPhone. Unlike last March, when Adobe executives stated they were committed to the idea before their PR teams redefined what they meant by "committed," today's announcement doesn't make any promises whatsoever.

The current technology agreement between Adobe and ARM (which was already ongoing) will now be targeting optimizations that will appear in new ARM11 technology due for availability in H2 2009. That "availability" may be to the companies that build with ARM processors or with processors that use licensed ARM technology, and with its iPhone 3G, Apple is now one of them. But that could push public availability of this optimization capability to 2010.

This level of partnership should make it possible for ARM to market its ARM11 technology as having been optimized for use with Adobe Flash (and by that time, Flash itself could have an "11" next to it). Though we don't know yet what the two companies will share, when they do share it, it could very well be out in the open, as today's partnership is taking place under the auspices of the Open Screen Project. That's an initiative launched with Adobe's leadership last April at CTIA Wireless, with the objective being to develop a common technology platform for multimedia over wireless devices, with the aid of independent developers. Intel and Motorola are also part of this project, although Apple is not.

Currently, Apple uses self-branded ARM chips at the heart of its iPhone 3G, which is common practice in the industry. Unlike Intel which simply sells chips, ARM licenses libraries, representing departments of its intellectual property, to other companies that can mix and match them to suit their purposes. Last week, IBM opened up its 42 nm foundry for the production of custom chips using ARM libraries, for manufacturers that assemble their own handsets.

But just because a chip contains a technology or even a library does not mean that manufacturers will necessarily make use of it, as was evidenced two years ago. At that time, many system-on-a-chip (SoC) makers devised firmware that could read both HD DVD and Blu-ray Discs, though very few customers used those chips to make consoles or players that could read both formats.

So future Apple iPhones could very well contain ARM chips optimized for Flash video (unless Apple decides to manufacture its own chips, as has been rumored, which leave that particular library out of the queue). But whether Apple decides to make use of that optimization could be entirely up to Apple.

If that ends up being the case, it could be independent developers such as those Adobe has been recruiting for the Open Screen Project, who end up filling the void. As of now, some have already made headway; for instance, last July, Belgian university consultant Thomas Joos successfully built a multimedia toolkit for the iPhone that enabled it to run Flash Lite video.

Meanwhile, Intel's Atom processor -- which competes directly against ARM, most recently in high-spirited fashion -- already contained optimizations for Flash at the time the chip was unveiled last April. Reports today that Adobe and ARM's partnership was meant as a counter-punch to Intel may be inaccurate, as Intel is not only a partner in the Open Screen Project, but a customer of ARM which supplies some of the libraries used in XScale handset technology. Marvell purchased the rights to produce XScale processors in June 2006, and Marvell is also part of Open Screen.