Is there really 'unprecedented' demand for iPhone 5?

Demand ahead of the launch of Apple's iPhone 5 is "unprecedented", with a third of all potential smartphone buyers planning to purchase the device. The data comes courtesy of a new survey of 4,000 consumers carried out by research firm ChangeWave.

Fourteen percent of those polled say they are "very likely" to purchase an iPhone 5, with an additional 17 percent saying they are "somewhat likely" to do the same. Combined, that represents the highest number for those planning to purchase a new iPhone model.

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A ChangeWave study conducted before the release of the iPhone 4S showed a little over 21 percent were either very or somewhat likely to purchase the device.

Of course, ChangeWave has had a general tendency over the years to sometimes overexaggerate things. The most recent example of this was the launch of the iPhone on Verizon last year. A few weeks before the carrier debuted the phone, Changewave published findings claiming 15 percent of AT&T subscribers were ready to switch.

The actual data told a different story -- AT&T's quarterly results during that time period were stellar. Instead of a drop year over year, new phone activations were up 23 percent -- likely indicating the launch on Verizon had little effect on its competitors.

All this said, it may be worth expecting a far more muted (yet still significant) consumer response to the iPhone 5. Yes, the likely inclusion of LTE and the capitulation on Apple's part to include a larger screen will drive a higher adoption rate of this generation iPhone. At the same time, it seems a little difficult to believe that difference will be 44 percent higher as ChangeWave (when comparing the 4S survey to the iPhone 5 data) suggests.

There's a whole caveat to the demand argument though, and that's distribution. The iPhone 5 will be Apple's most widely distributed smartphone to date. There's also the distinct possibility that iPhone will be available for the first time on T-Mobile, considering the carrier's recent moves to "refarm" its spectrum and bring its 3G and 4G bands more in line with US cellular practices.

If that's the case, then demand for the iPhone 5 could certainly reach those lofty ChangeWave numbers. But until then, it's a good idea to take these survey numbers with a grain of salt.

Photo Credit: Joe Wilcos

24 Responses to Is there really 'unprecedented' demand for iPhone 5?

  1. NoMac says:

    No!!  

  2. Sassigal11 says:

    Man! You are just dying to heap dirt on Apple you dirtbag.

  3. IT advisor says:

    There is a natural tendency to buy the better value-for-money Android handsets, which also have a more open architecture.

    The only reason to buy an Apple iPhone, with its closed walled-garden approach, is if it offers a significantly better product.

    That puts the pressure on Apple. If iPhone 5 is merely as good as the rest, people will switch to Android.

    • woe says:

       Lol....they have not switched so far.  In fact I bet more people switch from Android to iOS.

      The so called walled garden is only a problem for geeks.  The consumers, 98% of people buying these devices call the "walled garden" an ecosystem.  Apple right now has the best ecosystem.  Amazon understands this as well and that is why the best selling Android tablet is the Fire.

  4. Heck even those cheap carriers are selling iPhones, now. Cricket sells them.
     

  5. Iain Simpson says:

    I guess that people that buy apple stuff tend to stay with it and be safe I guess, but I really don't know about the iphone5 with its different power connector and weird dimension for screen and not to mention ios6. I think apple really needs to hire someone that has innovation because they ran out of ideas along time ago and are just riding it for whats it worth. The people that got apple to where it is today have left or died.

    • woe says:

       Iain...you are total Microsoft Fangirl and everyone here knows it.  Here is my prediction for you....

      Today when Apple announces its earnings, the iPhone ALONE will make more money that all Microsoft products...yes ALL MICROSOFT products.....combined.....AGAIN.

      They will do it next quarter as well....during the release of Windows 8 and Windows Phone 8.

      Can you come back here in Jan 2013 and tell us again how you really dont know about the iPhone 5 and its new connector...or its weird dimensions.....Please?

  6. BrandonMills says:

    Expect carriers to consider the LTE 'different' from the 3G unlimited plans you're on and consider those unlimited plans null and void as soon as you upgrade.

  7. Doug U says:

    I saw this at the register. Whatever Apple, all Android manufactures and Microsoft need to unite in getting a import ban on iPhone 5, how cool would that be?

  8. fgsdgdf says:

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    So imagine the media’s surprise when they were invited to Hong Kong for a mid-day rendezvous with creative directors Sandra Choi and Simon Holloway – arguably two of the British shoe label’s best-kept secrets – for the very first time.

    The meeting took place in Elements Hong Kong, one of the city’s swanky, high-end shopping malls and home to the label’s first ever “Dual Gender” boutique (for men and women) in Asia. Both Choi and Holloway are perched casually on a sofa nestled in the back room,jimmy choo bag looking more like two good friends on a park bench than two business partners on a PR bend. http://www.jimmychoobagstore.com

  9. ismail hammoud says:

    I think apple played a sleazy game by released th 4S with the same looks of iphone 4. now ofcourse all customers will want to buy a new iphone with a new distinguished look

    • woe says:

       Have you looked at the history of the iPhone?  Apple changes its external phone design every other year.  The year in between is a internal upgrade.  3G/3GS then 4/4s.  I would imagine there will be a 5 and then a year later a 5s, and then when the 6 comes out the external design will change.

  10. derekaw says:

    Yes! Yes! Yes! Unprecedented. I can't wait! I have unprecedented personal demand for the next iPhone.

    • angusmerlin2 says:

       Me, too!
      I did not update last year, cause I breathlessly was waiting to meet iPhone 5.

  11. Anthony Clark says:

    I have no interest at all in an iphone and it's overpriced closed ecosystem.

  12. Peeed Off says:

    iPhone 5 is too late to the market, Android phones have jumped leaps & bounds ahead of Apple now....!!!

    Samsung, Google/Motorola etc are bringing more to the market now & in the near future than Apple can keep up with. And they only have 1 device to show off their wares....Android has dozens of manufacturers, constantly improving their phones, not to mention the aftermarket Mod Rom community improving Android even further.

    In a few years iPhone will be left way behind, as there are way more innovators in the Android market...!!!

  13. Sparxx2k7 says:

    "unprecedented"?  Based on only 4000 people?

    I don't think the stat represents any part of the real world.

  14. markbyrn says:

    If anything should be taken with a grain of salt, it's articles about Apple in Betanews.  Since the editor of Betanews has 'declared his independence from Apple', Betanews has no journalistic creditability and you should realistically not report anything about Apple.  Of course we know that won't happen since articles with 'Apple' in the title get the hits with the associated ad revenue. 

  15. John Mann says:

    If true, I'd attribute it to the Android effect. For the first time, many iPhone owners are feeling behind the times. They're itching for an upgrade.

    • woe says:

      Really??  Can you provide us with links to the "many iPhone owners are feeling behind the times"???????????????????????

      Joe Consumer upgrades their phone every 2 years or more.  Only geeks into the latest and greatest jump around and they pay the price to do so.

      • extremely_well says:

        It's not such a high price premium, actually... Once you do the math you realize you wanna get the newest and best since UNLIKE PC'S, the smartphone/tablet industry is rapidly evolving with insane amount of benefits added every 12 months.

        So, a $600 phone, on a two year contract, costs you REALLY around $25 a month (you basically took a loan from your cell carrier). Now, take me on the other hand; I sell my 6-12 months phones after they depreciated in value $40-$50 a month. That means to have the latest and greatest costs you only $15-$25 a month additionally (or $180-$300 yearly)... Small price to pay in my book and I have freedom to say "buhbye" to any carrier playing dirty games (raising prices, lowering speed, limiting usage, etc).

  16. NO!
    People are really waiting for the next W8ZunePhone!

    http://ZuneResurection.blogspot.com

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