Resistance is futile -- Windows 10 will take over the PC market (eventually)

Microsoft hopes that within the first two to three years of availability, Windows 10 will power one billion devices worldwide. And, so far, things are looking good, as the new operating system can be found on over 200 million devices. But whether the software giant reaches its goal on time or not is irrelevant, because the new operating system will take over the PC market eventually, one way or another.

When looking at monthly stats and even Microsoft's own status updates on adoption it is way too easy to focus your attention on the figures themselves and lose sight of the bigger picture: as long as Windows 10's user base is growing, there is no stopping it. And that is what Microsoft wants, to have its new operating system "infecting" as many PCs and tablets as possible, so that it can finally take control of this market.

But Why?

If you look at sales of desktops and laptops, the PC market is struggling. Tablets are not really doing great either, as sales are also decreasing in this market. In this context, it is very hard for a new operating system to gain traction, when the company behind it is not doing all that it can in this direction. And for a company with the vision and ambition that Microsoft has, it would be foolish to not think ahead either.

Just look how popular Windows 7 is compared to Windows 8.1. The former, which was released more than six years ago, is used on more than half of PCs, while the latter commands roughly 10 percent usage share. So far, Windows 10 is at 12.82 percent usage share.

This is all a very, very big mess that Microsoft has to clean: because the vast majority of users are on old releases, any revenue that they generate will be insignificant in the great scheme of things. Windows seems to be heading in a direction where developers will find it less and less attractive, and that is a serious problem in the long run. If you have a market dominated by old products, that few developers have an interest in making new software for, the end is near.

Sure, there is a vast software ecosystem, but the landscape has hardly changed in the past couple of years. The major programs are here to stay, and there is no denying their value, but users have come to expect more. There are powerful communication, productivity and business apps which are missing from Store, and some are hugely successful with consumers and business users. A number of these titles are starting to show up, however, and that is thanks to Windows Store and universal apps. But there is a long way to go before major titles will be pouring in, as it happens on Android and iOS. For that to happen something has to change -- Windows 10 has to become a smashing hit.

Whether You Want It or Not, Here It Comes

Windows 10's role in the PC market is not just to get users on the latest-available release, but to make it possible for Microsoft to always keep them on the cutting edge. If you think about it, the new operating system is designed in such a way so that Microsoft can easily push a new build to a user base that will find it increasingly hard to say "no".

This simple upgrade path started with Windows 8, which allowed Microsoft to seamlessly push Windows 8.1 and users to upgrade with little to no intervention. In comparison, Windows 7 was designed more as a standalone operating system, for a time when users would upgrade once or twice in a decade. Back then, there was really no need for Microsoft to try to do more. Now, things are different.

Microsoft's strategy with Windows 8 and Windows 8.1 was not as aggressive because users had trouble adapting to these operating systems. Now that Windows 10 is superior in terms of user-friendliness, Microsoft is adapting its strategy accordingly. And it is going out of its way to make it easy for users to hit the upgrade button.

Windows 10 is a free upgrade, if you have a valid Windows 7 or Windows 8.1 license. Officially, that promo ends at the end of July, but an extension seems likely. After all, no consumer wants to pay for Windows in this day and age, and Microsoft knows it. The new operating system is also downloaded automatically on people's PCs, which, again, makes upgrades so easy (or, unavoidable) to perform. And, while it is there, Microsoft will pester you until you finally do it.

And, if you do not want to do it, Microsoft will keep at it until you finally cave in. Like Microsoft's Marketing chief Chris Caposella says, "We don’t want to anger anybody, but we do feel a responsibility to get people to a much better place, and Windows 10 is a much better place than Windows 7".

As It Looks to the Future, Microsoft Has Nothing to Lose

Microsoft will not take "no" for an answer, because right now it is in a position where it has nothing to lose, and everything to gain. Old releases are old news, but Windows 10 has the potential to generate healthy revenue for years to come. If you think about it, it makes more sense for Microsoft to focus on alternative revenue streams, like Windows Store, rather than trying to sell individual licenses, which are as attractive to the average user as a colonoscopy. Businesses, on the other hand, will be forced to upgrade, and buy licenses, because support for older releases will end at some point in the near future.

Windows 10 is an important piece of the puzzle and an important part of Microsoft's strategy, as a lot of other things depend on it. For instance, universal apps truly make sense when there is a large-enough user base that can install them. Windows 10 Mobile depends on universal apps, as the selection of titles available for it is sorely lacking compared to Android and iOS. Same applies to Surface devices, which are only as attractive as the software they enable you to run. And since Microsoft wants to succeed in all these areas, there is no other option than to "shove" Windows 10 down everyone's throats.

It does not matter if you agree, because Microsoft will find a way to get you to say "Alright, damn it, I'll do it" eventually. There is too much at stake here for Microsoft to leave things up to the average user. If left to their own devices, most people would stick with what they have now, for various reasons, and that simply cannot happen (anymore).

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