IPTV overtaking cable worldwide, analyst says, but what about the US?

Now that consumers are pinching pennies, an analyst group is predicting that high-speed broadband prices will fall to levels that will make IPTV a preferable alternative to cable and satellite TV...in some parts of the planet, at least.

According to a report by ABI Research, IPTV will grow by about 32 percent annually over the next six years to 79 million users worldwide by the end of 2014. Meanwhile, growth rates for legacy pay-TV platforms such as cable and satellite will slow.

"Some telecom operators which are faced with thinning margins are deploying high-speed access networking technologies to challenge incumbent satellite and cable operators," noted Serene Fong, an ABI analyst, in a statement issued by ABI today.

In a rather evident omission, though, ABI's statement doesn't mention IPTV versus legacy TV usage in either the US or Canada.

"IPTV usage will initially be concentrated in countries with established high-speed Internet technologies such as France, the Netherlands, South Korea and Hong Kong. But as technology progresses and matures, developing countries such as China will rapidly catch up in subscription numbers," according to Fong.

But what will happen in North America, a major market where Internet access speeds still tend to be lower than in some other areas of the world?

Influential manufacturers from both the computer and consumer electronics segments seem to be banking right now on cable as one prime delivery mechanism for both Internet fare and legacy TV programming.

Just last week at CES 2009, big TV makers such as Sony and Samsung announced support for a converged environment from Intel that will bring together Yahoo's "widgets" for Internet access with TV programming menus and other applications capable of running across the platforms of multiple legacy cable TV providers.

Time Warner is already supporting the platform, and other North American cable TV providers will do so later this year, an Intel official told Betanews.

At the same time, the digital TV conversion is set to happen in the US next month, and cable and satellite TV services will undoubtedly gain new subscribers among consumers who decide to simply sign up instead of installing converter boxes.

On the other hand, with FiOS now in its early implementation stages -- and 4G wireless services such as WiMAX and LTE now in the wings -- broadband IP speeds should ultimately push higher in North America, too.