Will 'Cyber Monday' fare better than a weak 'Black Friday?'

Today could be the day for some of the best online deals to be found all year. But will consumers bite? Internet market research firm comScore released its early holiday figures, showing a drop in online sales by 4%.

Here at the peak of the shopping season at what US government economists this morning officially proclaimed a "recession," the behavior of consumers is closely monitored. In the tech sector, groups such as comScore are paying strict attention to e-commerce traffic and consumer online spending. The group today has released its "Black Friday" sales data.

Last Tuesday, comScore released its prediction that e-commerce would drive about the same amount of traffic as last year, projecting a flat growth year over year. Today, the group said that from the first of November to "Black Friday," November 28, online spending has actually dropped about 4%. In 2007, $10.8 billion was spent online. This year, it was $10.4 billion. Black Friday itself was actually up a single percent over last year.

Today's data proved Retail Decisions' predictions incorrect as well. The group last week expected that 10:25 am EST on Black Friday would be the busiest shopping moment of the year for online retailers. As it turned out, comScore today found that the busiest single hour of Black Friday online shopping was actually 12:00 - 1:00 pm, in which 8% of the day's sales took place (or nearly $42.7 million worth).

"Cyber Monday" has, in its brief three-year existence as a more or less official shopping day, predicted the overall performance of online holiday shopping growth. That is, the percentage of growth that takes place on Cyber Monday has been very close to the overall growth for the full season. So if comScore is sticking to its predictions, today's sales will represent a 19%-21% spike, the same as 2007.

BetaNews does not wish to encourage frivolous spending, but as today is a good day to acquire computer and entertainment gear at a discount, we will be keeping a live blog of Cyber Monday sales.