PDC 2008 Preview: Change we can count on?
Just before a major Microsoft conference, I like to assemble a list of five flashpoints that not only add vim and vigor to our copy here at BetaNews, but which also focus on the main items we expect to see addressed by Microsoft's representatives this year. Maybe they will be, maybe they won't, but even when they're not, that often tells us something important anyway. Here are our five flashpoints for PDC 2008:
- Will User Account Control change for Windows 7? Though User Account Control has arguably fulfilled its principal mission to improve the security of the Windows kernel, the principal goal of the product that's really Windows 6.1 will be to improve the Windows experience. Changing UAC without altering the system kernel (again) and without sacrificing its integrity will be a tricky matter; but leaving it as it is could subject Microsoft to a fresh round of ridicule.
How Microsoft could go about the matter is by adding significant new functionality to what Vista currently calls the Security Center, that effectively adds per-application privileges on the order of ZoneAlarm Pro or Comodo Firewall Pro...or, for that matter, the group policy control that's already in Windows Server. But this would mean re-introducing functionality into the Windows client that Microsoft has already removed once already.
The perennial problem with giving users the tools they need to control their systems at a deep level, is the deep damage they can do to those systems. The matter of User Account Control is an extremely difficult tightrope to walk for Microsoft, which could still conceivably hold firm to the the tack that UAC is not really fundamentally flawed.
- What and where is this cloud? While Windows 7 is currently the subject on everyone's mind, the main topic of Day 1 of PDC will likely be whatever part of Windows that Microsoft plans to deploy in the cloud. One very real possibility is that Microsoft may be planning to compete directly against Amazon, by offering a cloud computing service that hosts Windows on behalf of customers who effectively lease Microsoft's hardware.
Windows online services to date have not gotten a good grip on the market, due perhaps in large part to its having targeted general consumers as its principal customer. Consider the possibility of Microsoft either diverting from, or even dropping, this strategy altogether, turning its attention instead to a new class of customer that needs the ability to use business class software that Microsoft makes, but under an alternative investment model. This may indeed be a workable alternative strategy for Microsoft, moving away from deploying "experiences" in the cloud and toward deploying services.
- Do enough developers see a need for "modeling?" The next version of Visual Studio will extend the concept of composite applications through even to the standard editions. Granted, not even Microsoft itself has used this term consistently (a few years ago, the phrase was applied to building line-of-business apps for Microsoft Office), so this is another one of those very difficult concepts for Microsoft or anybody else to explain.
So let me give it a shot: In an environment where jobs are being performed asynchronously using multiple Web services protocols, it's becoming more and more foolish to consider entire applications written in or around one language. There are multiple actors sharing the stage, so it only makes sense that they coordinate with one another.
In the platform called Oslo, which we'll be hearing a lot more about at PDC this week, all the various components of Microsoft development converge around a common concept for network applications. Thus one component can be written in whatever language (C#, ASP.NET AJAX, Visual Basic, F#) best suits not only the job at hand but the person writing the code.
- Getting third-party developers back on the same page. This may end up being a major topic for WinHEC the following week, but it'll be brought up here: We're already well into the Service Pack 1 lifecycle for Vista, and still we're in a situation where far too many device drivers and security applications fail to function properly, or as expected, or in some cases at all. Never mind that Vista RTM premiered in early 2007, it's been a factor in developers' lives since the fall of 2005.
Rather than scoot the rug out from under developers again, Microsoft has an opportunity with Windows 7 to organize developers around a common goal; and that's actually the principal function of PDC anyway. Maybe it's too late to regain developers' favor with Vista, but if Microsoft can convince developers that Windows 7 is the assembly of the right ideas and principles that Windows Vista should have been, it can restore their faith in the operating system. And that, in turn, could improve the situation for users who's simply like to be able to plug in their USB Bluetooth card or synchronize with their cell phones without jumping through hoops...or crashing through them.
- Will multi-touch matter? With Apple rapidly implementing multi-touch concepts, including in its latest round of MacBook Pros, Microsoft may have to scramble to avoid looking like it's playing catch-up. But the fact is, neither side has yet demonstrated a concept where multi-touch could be used intuitively and effectively in the everyday use of the operating system.
While stretching and repositioning a virtual photograph atop a virtual table certainly draws a crowd for a few minutes, there's a legitimate question as to whether multi-touch truly has across-the-board benefits. Is it a feature that the everyday computer user can intuitively and readily put to use? Keep in mind that the single-touch keypad in use on many laptops today is not a particularly easy device for general computer users. For Microsoft to make multi-touch a desirable feature, it will need to make the concept and APIs easy for third parties such as Synaptics to implement it. We're likely to see some further demonstrations of multi-touch this week, in the context of new Windows 7 applications -- probably including an upgraded photo album -- that puts its new experimental APIs to use.
It will be exciting as always, but the attitudes of attendees at this year's PDC could be mixed with a much higher than normal degree of skepticism. How Microsoft handles the next few days could make the difference between a healthy new product cycle that helps the company survive the economic downturn, and an operating system that falls victim -- along with the rest of the US economy next year -- to a decline in growth.
Stay in touch with BetaNews all this week as Nate Mook and Scott Fulton cover every angle from the floor of PDC 2008 in Los Angeles.