Will you wait for iPhone 5?

Apple-loving analyst Gene Minster claims there is "pent up demand" among Verizon subscribers for iPhone 5 -- that something like 74 percent of potential Apple smartphone buyers will wait for the newer model. Little more than half of AT&T potential iPhone buyers (or upgraders) also plan to wait. Munster also found that 64 percent of those surveyed plan to buy an iPhone as their next handset. The Piper Jaffray analyst bases this amazing discovery on a sample of 216 cell phone users. Hell, we can get more people right here and now with a poll.

Two-hundred sixteen? Geez Louise, and now his findings are making headlines on this fine August morning. I saw it first at Apple Insider. Of course, people are going to wait with rumors of iPhone 5 coming in September -- or October, as All Things Digital claims today. But to call it three-quarters of buyers based on little more than 200 people -- quick! Kick me so I don't pass out from shock.

There are problems with Munster's data, even taking the most cursory look. Apparently, he conducted the survey in the Minneapolis area. I lived in MPLS for a year and wouldn't call it a petri dish for the rest of the country. The findings that matter and should be base for others don't jive with other surveys conducted by ComScore and Nielsen, which do have large samples. Among Munster's respondents, 29 percent have iPhone, 28 percent BlackBerry and 17 percent Android. According to Nielsen, the number of US cellular subscribers with a smartphone running Android is 39 percent -- 28 percent for iOS and 20 percent for BlackBerry OS. ComScore puts Android at 38.1 percent, iOS at 26.6 percent and BlackBerry at 24.7 percent.

So exactly where does Munster's 17 percent Android come from? It doesn't sync with either of the two other reputable analyst firms, which data trends consistently. If the number of Android users is lower than the real market, it will skew the data and give higher findings for iPhone. Or perhaps: Many of the respondents don't know what operating system their phone has, but they've heard of iPhone -- how can they not with all the advertising Apple does?

Two weeks ago, I asked: "Which matters more to you, Android or iOS?" The question was mainly aimed at developers, and there were two polls. By the way, before continuing, UI developer Robert Johnson answers the question in a post here today: He chooses iOS. In the first poll, I asked, simply: "What operating system runs on your primary non-PC mobile device (e.g., smartphone or tablet)?" Among the 1,602 respondents (as I write this), 59.43 percent answered Android. For iOS, 19.73 percent; Windows Phone 7, 10.42 percent; BlackBerry, 3.43 percent; and Symbian, 3.31 percent.

My sample is nearly 8 times larger than Miunster's, and it's plenty big enough to make some grandiose claims. But I knew from the start that most of the respondents would be techie types and not reflective of the general populace. Still, look at those numbers, which, by the way, are more indicative of the 550,000 daily Android activations than are Munster's.

The other question: "Developers, which statement best applies to you?" Responses:

• 46.45 percent: "I am developing more Android apps than six months ago"
• 5.69 percent: "I am developing about the same number of Android apps as six months ago"
• 6.16 percent: "I am developing fewer Android apps than six months ago"
• 41.71 percent: I don't develop apps for Android"

Those results are from what I consider to be a small sample: 422, which is helluva lot larger than Munster's. I posted the survey after Flurry's Charles Newark-French claimed that "it's readily apparent that Android has lost developer support to iOS. Specifically, Android new project starts have dropped from 36 percent in Q1 to 28 percent in Q2". That's not what my survey shows. But what's more significant is number of respondents not developing for Android at all. That's a good story, but one for which I want to collect larger sample of responses first.

So now we come to the question of the day. It's a new month and time for some fresh perspective. Will you wait for iPhone 5? Please answer the poll above and offer broader perspective in comments below -- or you can email joe at betanews dot com.