Windows 7 stomps on Mac's feeble market share gains

PC shipments have been downright glum over the last couple quarters, with tablets (c`mon, friggin' iPad) sucking away consumer dollars. But that hasn't stopped Windows 7's advance, which is getting a boost from the huge corporate Windows XP install base moving onward. Today, Gartner predicted -- and, frankly, it's no shocking palm reading -- that Windows 7 will become the "leading operating system" this year.

Yeah, tell me something less obvious than my nose. But summer is a slow season even for analyst firms. Gartner needs to say something, so customers will keep buying those expense reports and that journalists (yeah, like me) write about the data -- lest somebody forget Gartner still exists.

"By the end of 2011, nearly 635 million new PCs worldwide are expected to be shipped with Windows 7", Annette Jump, Gartner research director, says in a statement. "Many enterprises have been planning their deployment of Windows 7 for the last 12 to 18 months, and are now moving rapidly to Windows 7".

But like any analyst making predictions, she qualifies: "However, the economic uncertainties in Western Europe, political instability in selected Middle East and Africa (MEA) countries and the economic slowdown in Japan after the earthquake and tsunami in March 2011 will likely lead to slightly late and slow deployment for Windows 7 across those regions". If the prediction doesn't pan out, companies can come back to Gartner and pay up more, like the local yokel giving the palm reader another twenty. :)

The analyst firm expects Windows 7 will be on 42 percent of PCs "in use" by the end of the year and that the operating system will ship on 94 percent of personal computers. Now there's some prophesy. Quick get out $20 and the other palm, because that leaves just 6 percent for other operating systems, mainly Linux and Mac OS X (who knows about poor gifted but neglected WebOS; perhaps a better palm reader could say). That doesn't forebode much growth for Macintosh, now does it? Maybe it will have only 5 percent global share by year's end. Wait, not even that. Gartner predicts 4.5 percent. Mac Fanclubbers, would you like a hanky?

"The adoption of Mac PCs and Mac OS is a result of Apple's ability to grow well above the market average in the last 12 to 24 months, thanks to its ease of use from the user interface (UI) point of view and ease of integration with other Apple devices, such as the iPhone, iPad, iPod touch and the existing Apple ecosystem of applications and programs", Jump says. OK, Fanclubbers, you can wipe the tears now.

That 4.5 percent share is up from 3.3 percent three years ago. Gartner predicts Macs will have 5.2 percent global share by 2015. For Apple Fanclubbers expecting more, Gartner's prediction isn't giving it. Still, that might not matter much to Apple, since iOS devices accounted for 70 percent of revenue during calendar second quarter. Right now, mobile is likely the next-generation computing platform.

As for the rest, Gartner sees Linux share being below 2 percent through 2015. Android, Chrome OS and WebOS will have no significant share on personal computers. Oh yeah? I want another reading or my 20 bucks back.