Analysis: The netbook's time has finally come

Eee, Adamo, Vaio P...None of them, it seems, have names that sound unlike yodels. But they're all catching on, as at long last, manufacturers may finally have found a low-cost functionality niche they can capitalize upon.

Three years ago at this time, Microsoft was urging more manufacturers to jump on-board a bandwagon named after paper folding, to sign on to a communal platform for small form-factor computing called UMPC. "What am I?" Microsoft literally asked, assuming the voice of "Origami," though to this day it never responded to its own question.

Now with or without Microsoft's metaphors and rhetorical questions, netbook manufacturers appear to finally be coming together around a platform that has respectable speed for a limited set of resources that consumers can rely upon, for a decent price point. The $400 barrier appears to be breaking down. And this is very good news for manufacturers in a very bad economy, especially those for whom the desktop form factor is dying -- at least among consumers, though not businesses. In the traditional "mix" between desktop/laptop that's quoted by HP, Dell, Acer, and others every year, it may be time to add a third player...if not to consider an all-out substitution.

Betanews asked our frequent contributor and AR Communications Senior Vice President Carmi Levy for some insight on this late-breaking, if not altogether late, trend:

[Carmi, is it time for PC manufacturers to start changing the "mix," as their CFOs call it during analysts' meetings, from desktop/notebook to desktop/notebook/netbook? (Or to notebook/netbook?) And based on what you've seen so far, is there an emerging standard form factor that will help solidify customers' expectations about what a "basic netbook" should be?]

I think it's a fair assumption that the netbook has firmly established itself as a viable choice for those seeking client-based machines. Vendors have done an admirable job over the past year educating end users about what a netbook is, what it isn't and how it can be leveraged by consumers and businesses looking for highly portable productivity alternatives. It's fairly clear now that the basic netbook form factor is now well understood by the majority of the consumer and the enterprise market.

[Are you or are you not surprised that Intel's name only comes up in this conversation with respect to the Atom processor, not the MID platform it tried to conjure up?]

I'm not at all surprised that earlier attempts to brand the space in between smartphones and laptops -- MIDs and UMPCs -- failed. Price-performance was nowhere near anything the average consumer or business was willing to pay. UMPCs, in particular, were laughably incapable for the premium prices they commanded. The netbook's success, in contrast, is based on its ability to deliver a healthy subset of a typical notebook's capability at a price point that's sufficiently below those commanded by the larger machines. The UMPC, like the netbook, delivered less capability, but consumers were unwilling to pay prices that exceeded those even of high-end notebooks. As always in a competitive market, price-performance once again wins the day.

As an aside, the timing of the netbooks' achievement of critical mass could not have been better. An inexpensive laptop alternative speaks directly to businesses and consumers reeling from an endless stream of bad economic news. As netbooks push average transaction prices to near-discretionary levels, they change people's perceptions of what they can and cannot afford during a period of severe economic distress.

Time and again, the market has shown that it will not have standards dictated to it. Rather, the market and the market alone will determine which brands, form factors and capabilities survive and thrive. The market wanted a cheap, tiny alternative to a notebook all along. It simply wasn't willing to have standards forced on it and it wasn't willing to accept the unacceptable alternatives pushed by Intel and its tier-1 hardware partners.

When relatively unknown brands like Acer and Asus brought viable netbooks to market, they immediately highlighted the shortcomings of the Intel-based offerings from the major vendors and shifted everyone's attention in a new direction. This is precisely how a competitive, innovation-driven market should work, and it should finally put to rest questions over what should fit in between smartphones and notebooks. We now have our answer, and the next couple of years will see further refinements on this basic form factor as consumers and businesses alike get used to widespread availability of offerings below the traditional entry-level notebook tier.