Tuning out the tablet: Time to give the endless speculation a rest

I'm sure I'm not the only one who looks at renderings of Apple's long-rumored tablet - or iTablet, or whatever name the faithful have assigned to it this week - and wishes the FedEx truck would pull up to my door with an early demo in time for the holiday season. I'm sure I'm also not the only one who's ready for the endless speculation to, well, end.

I don't think I've ever seen an unreleased product generate so much discussion without so much as a peep from the vendor of record. I realize the frenzied speculation is as frenzied as it is because we're talking about Apple, and that if this were any other company, we'd collectively yawn our response before moving on to the next big thing. This is a company that seems unique in its ability to generate so much activity around what is, for now at least, vapourware. And while I appreciate the value of healthy exchanges in advance of a major product launch, I can't shake the feeling that the never-ending iTablet fever is just a little much, and that we'd all be doing ourselves a favor by giving it a rest and waiting until Apple actually ships a working product.

Like junk food - great taste, not so healthy

Don't get me wrong: This is all good for Apple. Once again, without spending so much as a dime on advertising, Apple has managed to keep its corporate brand front and center in both tech and mainstream media. It hasn't had to use its PR firm retainers to pre-announce anything because breathless conventional and social media folks have been perfectly willing to share their so-called news on the company's behalf. Any other vendor would sell its first, second and third born offerings to have even a fraction of this kind of market visibility and influence. Decades from now, when media mastery is taught in institutions of higher learning, Apple's ability to time and again conjure a deafening buzz around things that may or may not see the light of day will serve as an iconic case study.

But is any of this good for us? Is it helpful or hurtful for consumers and wannabes alike to spend days on end hovering over blog entries, twittering madly or debating in online forums? These activities in and of themselves are the sign of a healthy community, of course, and are crucial to giving vendors the kind of insight they need to continue to deliver market-relevant products and services. But has the uber-hype that seems to follow Apple around - and that has seemingly impossibly shifted into an even higher gear for the iTablet - finally reached the point of diminishing returns?

Too much of anything isn't good for you

I'm going to argue that the hype has gone well beyond the point at which it adds any value to our collective lives. We're working ourselves into a tizzy over something we know nothing about. We don't know what OS this thing will run, how large it will be, what kind of screen it will have and how much it'll cost. We've seen lots of beautifully rendered images of it and heard a near endless string of confirmed - then scotched - confirmations of imminent component orders and production. And as much fun as it is to bat around possibilities, it hardly seems like a productive way to spend time.

That's because while we're all breathlessly sharing thoughts and opinions - but precious few facts - on a mysterious device that we now won't apparently see until late next year, we continue to be challenged with more mundane needs, like using technology that's available today to keep customers happy, our bank accounts filled and our lights on. I have no issue gazing into the collective crystal ball as a means of informing the kinds of decisions we need to make either today or in the near future. Keeping at least half an eye on what's coming is one way of avoiding nasty surprises and keeping one step ahead of everyone else. But when said crystal ball becomes our sole focus of conversation, I'd like to humbly suggest that we've gone too far. Balance matters here, too, and if we're spending all our time discussing a mythical product that's close to a year from possibly seeing the light of day, we're missing the significance of today.

We're missing the real point

In a way, it's a little disappointing that the enormous halo cast by this not-quite-a-product product eclipses the real issue at hand: that vendors have for the better part of the last decade failed to convince consumers that they should pony up for devices in the empty space between pocketable mobile devices and laptops. UMPCs and later MIDs failed to gain any traction thanks to low value propositions and ridiculous pricing. Netbooks have come close, thanks largely to their just-good-enough-for-the-purpose performance, conveniently portable form factor and recession-friendly price point. Timing has also helped netbooks carve out a niche, as their short range wireless and, increasingly, carrier-supported 3G connectivity gives them mobile capabilities that earlier, less well-connected devices could only dream of. Increasingly Web-centric application models don't hurt, either.

The success of the netbook is giving rise to new forms of devices and revenue models that could - maybe - finally fill in the veritable valley of death that has already claimed so many mid-sized, mid-priced form factors. While it's unclear where Apple's product will ultimately fit, it's hardly a big story until the company actually moves closer to marketing the thing. Until then, every other competing vendor has just gotten a bit of additional breathing room to figure out what resonates with consumers before Apple satisfies the fanboys and finally introduces its tablet. Or whatever it is.

Until then, count me among the cynics who really doesn't care whether or not it has an OLED or a TFT screen, whether it's released as one product or two, or whether it costs $2,000 or half that. Only when we begin to see actual data points will we be able to decide whether it's worth pulling the plastic out or our wallets. For now, even Apple is capable of overstepping the limits of my patience.

Carmi Levy is a Canadian-based independent technology analyst and journalist still trying to live down his past life leading help desks and managing projects for large financial services organizations. He comments extensively in a wide range of media, and works closely with clients to help them leverage technology and social media tools and processes to drive their business.