Analysts play king-of-the-hill with 3G iPhone sales claims

Analysts who are normally paid to be skeptical and cynical are falling over themselves to see which one can make the biggest sales predictions for the second-generation 3G iPhone, due to be rolled out July 11 for as low as $199.

With the first models of the iPhone priced at $599 and $699 and selling between 5 and 6 million since its introduction, Apple CEO Steve Jobs' prediction that the company would sell 10 million iPhones in 2008 seemed optimistic - yet that ambitious number is looking increasingly conservative compared with more and more extravagant analyst claims.

• Piper Jaffray predicts 12.9 and 45 million units for 2008 and 2009, respectively.
• Morgan Stanley predicts a doubling of iPhone sales, meaning 10-12 million, in 2008, and more than 27 million in 2009.
• Citigroup predicts 12 million units in the second half of this year and 23 million in 2009.
• RBC Capital predicts more than 5 million in Q3 and 6.5 million in Q4, for a total of 14 million for 2008, then 24 million in 2009. RBC also released the results of a consumer panel survey indicating that 56% of those planning to buy a smartphone in the next 90 days plan to purchase an iPhone, up from 35% in March, and that 27% may buy an iPhone sometime in the future. (The author of that report was unavailable for comment today.)
• Friedman Billings Ramsey semiconductor analyst Craig Berger: 17 million, of which 15 million are 3G iPhones.
• CLSA Emerging Markets' Jenny Lai: 18 million.
• Pacific Crest's Andy Hargreaves: 23 million iPhones by June 2009.
• Needham & Co. tech analyst Charles Wolf: 30 million iPhones in 2009.

The lone Kool-Aid holdout appears to be Charles King, principal analyst at Pund-IT Research, who notes that the $20 a month charge on a two-year service contract adds up to $240, which wipes out most of the savings on the iPhone upfront cost. That makes him dubious that the new iPhone will sell as well as some other analysts are predicting.