CES Countdown #1: How are manufacturers' perceptions changing about the consumer?

Less attention to glitz, more attention to risk

Certainly, Apple's success with the integrated iPhone, and now the phoneless iPod Touch, has also not gone unnoticed by other consumer electronics manufacturers. While Apple is unlikely to release any results until its first-quarter earnings results in late January, some prognosticators are already predicting that the iPod Touch was a "sleeper" success this Christmas.

Apple, however, may be having its own problems, after CEO Steve Jobs ducking the 2009 Macworld show, its notice that it would not return in 2010 (if there is a Macworld show then), and with Jobs' substitute delivering perhaps less-than-stunning product announcements -- especially preceding Palm's stunning Pre announcement during Thursday's CES.

Another area in which manufacturers may be more cautious is likely to be in choosing retail partners, Dubravac said. "They're going to spend a lot more time analyzing the financial integrity and viability of their clients and customers," he said. "When times are uncertain, you become more selective and begin to measure your risks more thoroughly. 'What's the risk that this business transaction represents?' smart vendors will begin to ask themselves."

While Dubravac didn't name any names, Circuit City made headlines when it said, just before the start of the rich Christmas shopping season, that it would be closing 155 stores and eliminating 17 percent of its workforce, after a $162.7 million loss in the quarter -- followed by its bankruptcy filing a week later.

For its part, Sony Ericsson is working to get more products into Wal-Mart, which is a customer through AT&T, Morris said. Consumers used to the low-cost retailer are going back to it after having moved away from it over the last year or two, she said.

Overall, executives of consumer electronics manufacturers are realizing that they have paid too little attention to risk over the past few years, and will be reevaluating their opportunities, Dubravac said. "'Now we're going back and going to say, "Maybe my profits won't be as robust, but I'll minimize some risk, and that, in the long run, is a good thing,"' he predicted them thinking to themselves.

But amidst all the dismal news about layoffs and restructuring, there may be a bright side, Dubravac noted. "Coming out of recessions, we tend to see significant innovation," he said. "Overcapacity and layoffs are sometimes the catalyst that causes people who were otherwise risk-averse to start their own firms. We could be setting up for a period of tremendous innovations, should some of these people who've lost their jobs think 'This is the time to start the firm I've been dreaming of for five years."'