NT4 Upgrades Open the Door for Linux

According to numbers tabulated by Jupiter Research, just as many big businesses are running Windows NT4 Server as they did 10 months ago, indicating adoption of Windows Server 2003 has not caught on as Microsoft had hoped. But Redmond's loss could be Linux's gain say analysts.

There are a number of reasons for businesses not to upgrade nine year-old NT4 servers, notes Jupiter Research senior analyst Joe Wilcox. Many NT4 systems run on older hardware that would not survive a transition to Windows Server 2003. In addition, Windows NT4 continues to perform file and print server functions quite well, despite its age.

Client Access Licenses required for new Windows Server releases also pose a problems to many businesses looking to cut costs, and could spur an upgrade not Windows, but to Linux.

"If a Windows NT 4 Server is doing what's supposed to do, the cheapest thing is to let it be and continue to realize ROI on the original investment," says Wilcox. "Even in a straight Windows Server 2003 software upgrade, there are new client-access licenses to consider. Their cost would vary depending on business size and the kind of volume-licensing plan in place. Linux wouldn't have any CALs, just the cost for the software, which would vary depending on source."

Support for Windows NT4 Server ceases at the end of the year, but paid support fixes to the operating system have been extended until 2006, giving companies more time to upgrade. "Some of our large enterprise and public sector customers have told us they need until 2006 to complete the upgrade," said Peter Houston, Senior Director of Windows Serviceability.

But Microsoft may encounter more problems the longer it waits, Jupiter's Wilcox predicts, as Linux runs better on older hardware than Windows Server. "My prediction: The older those servers get, the greater risk of migration to an operating system other than Windows Server 2003, says Wilcox. "That said, greater risk doesn't equate to a massive move to Linux. But there is greater opportunity for Linux vendors while the transition lingers."