Who is buying iPhone 4S?

Whoa, the results from our "Will you buy iPhone 4S?" poll are in, and, damn, are they interesting. As I write, there are 3,816 respondents -- that's a helluva good sample size -- and nearly 60 percent (okay, 58.48 percent) say they will buy the new Apple smartphone. But before the Apple Fanclub blows a heart value and excitedly calls this the end of Android, the majority of respondents (35.46 percent) are upgrading from another iPhone. Only 7.31 percent plan to give up Android for iPhone 4S.

Not surprisingly, the majority of iPhone upgraders (14.7 percent) are coming from 3GS. Still, 12.47 percent are iPhone 4 users. Few are coming from Windows Mobile/Phone -- less than 1 percent, but the numbers may not be great to begin with. Among BlackBerry users, 4.93 percent plan to switch, while 9.93 percent are coming from "another phone".

So what about the more than 40 percent of respondents not interested in iPhone 4S?

• 3.35 percent "don't qualify for discounted pricing"
• 24.46 percent answered no, "because iPhone 4S isn't compelling enough"
• 14.1 percent: "No, because I'm satisfied with what I've got"

Nearly one-quarter of respondents don't think iPhone 4S is worth it. That's a big number. Of course the number planning on buying iPhone 4S is larger.

Digging Deeper

Now for the caveats. This is an unqualified poll. It's open to anyone with an Internet connection and may not fully represent the intentions of Betanews readership. What people say and what they do often differ. The survey measures desire not action. I wouldn't be surprised if half as many people who say they will buy actually do.

Something else: Timing. I planned to conduct the poll on Wednesday night, but then Apple cofounder Steve Jobs died of cancer. I suspect the results would be different in other circumstances. There's a heightened sense about Apple right now that likely lifts peoples' feelings about buying. The poll could reflect actual buying, if those intentions sustain. I can't say until we poll later on.

What's certain: Most of the respondents plan to buy iPhone 4S, most plan to upgrade from another iPhone and only a small number want to give up their Androids.

Let me quantify the numbers differently. Responses come from people in 82 countries, with the majority (3,044) coming from the United States. US responses only differ slightly from the whole.

In the United Kingdom a much larger number (23.17 percent) are coming from iPhone 3G and fewer from iPhone 4 or Android -- 7.32 percent and 4.88 percent, respectively. More than 47 percent don't plan to upgrade, with 26.83 saying that iPhone 4S isn't compelling enough.

The sample from Japan, while small (but measurable), is startling. More than 61 percent of respondents say they will not buy iPhone 4S. That contrasts with Australia, where 60 percent of respondents say they will buy iPhone 4S. Responses from most other countries were too small to make any meaningful measurements.

What Readers Say

Betanews readers also responded in comments. David Ramey answered the question: "Already have. Pre-ordered this morning".

Jon Fingas:

I have an iPhone 3GS, and you'll bet I'm upgrading to the iPhone 4S. Simply put, I like the iPhone experience, and I'm bumping into a list of needs and wants: I need more than 32GB of storage, I can tell my apps are hitting the limits of performance, and I'm locked out of apps that need the front camera. I really want a sharper display, faster 3G, and a better rear camera.

I've used the Galaxy S II, and it's awesome, but Android's app ecosystem and my tastes for media playback would make me pick the iPhone.

Saman Azizkhani: "I'm waiting for Nexus Prime".

"The 4S offers enough new features to tip the scale for me", Herb Gardener writes. "I've been hanging onto my Verizon contract because I just can't stand AT&T. The 1st model available on Verizon wasn't enough -- now the extra speed, nicer camera, voice command features, world travel capabilities, are enough to make me finally get one. I'm excited about it. Finally, one worth buying on Verizon".

Ralph Pennino plans to "buy a Nexus Prime -- or whatever there going to call it". He will be "upgrading from a Nexus One. Had a iPhone 3G -- did not enjoy it; very closed ecosystems, unlike Android".

Gary Lader: "I will be upgrading from a 4 to 4S, just for the compatibility with HSPA alone. Not to mention considerable upgrades in processor, (prob ram) and the camera. Siri won't work on anything else either. Just because it doesn't have a new shape or a 5 on it, that means it sucks? What a joke. It's a pretty big upgrade in my book".

What about you? You can still answer the question, and I've embedded the poll to collect more responses.