Is Samsung being honest about Galaxy S II sales?

Not by any math I reckon.

In June and July, Samsung released some startling early sales figures about the Galaxy S II smartphone. During its first 55 days on the market, 3 million units sold. Thirty days later, on July 22, sales reached 5 million -- so after 85 days. Those figures are impressive, but they don't reconcile with Samsung statements made last night.

"Five million Galaxy S II smartphones have been sold around the world and that number increases every day", Dale Sohn, president of Samsung Mobile, says in a statement. "We believe the cutting-edge design, features and user experience of this innovative device will share the same level of success in the U.S".

Sohn made that numbers statement during the smartphone's US launch last night, six months after Samsung announced the Galaxy S II in February.

If the "number increases every day" what about the 38 days between the 5-million achievement and yesterday's statement? They don't reconcile. What? Samsung sold no new Galaxy S IIs since late July?

There are three plausible explanations:

1. Samsung isn't revealing new sales figures, which doesn't make loads of sense given the high-profile US launch and with the past boasting. Surely Samsung would like to promote a bigger number. One explanation is ongoing litigation with Apple, and Samsung lawyers have instituted a clam-up policy.

2. Sales collapsed. After an initial big run overseas (the S2 launched pretty much everywhere else in the world first), the smartphone isn't doing so well now.

3. The sales figures were for shipments, which is the explanation that I see as most plausible. Samsung had to ship millions of phones into the channel to stock store and carrier shelves, which could be counted as sales; lots of other manufacturers, even Apple, do it that way. They report sales into the channel.

So Samsung had a flood of shipments into the channel, which doesn't mean the same number going out to buyers. That Samsung didn't update the 5 million figure last night suggests that sell-through might not be anywhere as great as sell-in. Otherwise, Samsung would have shipped more Galaxy S IIs and reported that figure some time in the previous 38 days.

There is no question that Galaxy S is Samsung's most successful smartphone ever. Even without it, the manufacturer is doing quite well in the United States. For the three months ending July 31, Samsung was the largest handset maker in the United States based on cellular subscribers -- 25.5-percent share, according comScore, which released the data yesterday. Android's smartphone share is 41.8 percent compared to 27 percent for iOS/iPhone.

I asked Samsung for clarification about sales figures soon before posting. I'll update with any response I get.